Wednesday, 29 February 2012

Review of February......

The review of February is now up in the usual place.

I don’t want to repeat the review again here but I think the key thing to take from the review is the fact that for the first time ever, both rating algorithms lost badly and yet, the combined systems made a profit on the month. There have been times before when one algorithm has lost and the combined systems have made a profit and of course, there have been times when both algorithms have made a profit and yet, the combined systems lost. However, there has never been a time when both algorithms lost while the combined systems make a profit.

I think it highlights the main reason why my combined systems are producing unparalleled returns (compared to other systems and tipsters) over such a large number of bets. Quite simply, I’ve created something that is pretty robust in the sense that even when my base value ratings are not having a good time of it (we’re seeing that at the moment), my ratings and systems are smart enough to know which bets are the best bets and to stake them accordingly. It’s hard to get across how difficult this is to do as simply, if your ratings aren’t doing well, trying to build a system to make a profit is pretty difficult to do! I’d even go as far to say that even if you have profitable ratings, trying to build a system or set of systems to make a profit is very difficult to do.

Anyway, that’s about the only positive to take from the month of February. 10 betting days, 8 losing days and 2 winning days. Just about sums up the month for me. I reckon it’s that last statistic that has made the month feel much worse than it looks in my P&L. When you lose 80% of the time, you don’t expect to be in profit. I’d even go as far to say that I don’t deserve to be in profit but maybe I’m being a bit harsh on my systems!

15 months of proofed results for the combined systems, 12 months of profits. 80% of months have been winning months. Not a bad statistic!

Next bets will be up on Friday evening for the weekend. If I can think of anything to write about before then, I’ll do a post but my attention has already turned to discussing AH betting in the SBC forum and I’m starting to build an algorithm for the European Leagues for next season, so writing on the blog isn’t a priority at the moment if I’m honest.

Hopefully everyone’s P&L this season is still in one piece following February…………

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