Friday, 10 February 2012

Quieter Weekend

(I've not edited the below post for the fact most of the games are postponed. If you are following, check the games are on first before looking to place the bets!)

It’s a quieter weekend than I thought it would be when I first looked at the ratings and the games first thing yesterday morning. However, a lot of the marginal value bets got dropped as the odds reduced throughout the day and by the time I issued the bets at 7pm, a fair number had been chopped from the system bets as the value was gone. This is never ideal as I can’t help but feel like I’m missing out but at the end of the day, this game is all about value at a point in time.

A team that is available at 7/2 may be a marginal value bet but at 3/1, I can pass on them. Long-term, the 0.5pts add up and I’ve been playing this game long enough to know that I can’t go chasing lower odds on teams.

The biggest game this weekend is the West Brom game on Sunday. It’s a massive game for Mick McCarthy and Wolves and so many times over the past 3 season, Wolves have pulled it out at home in these sort of games. Hopefully they don’t pull it out on Sunday as they are facing a West Brom team who are playing a level above Wolves and look overpriced in this one according to my ratings.

Good luck and I’ll be back on Sunday night or early next week with the results.

Cheers,

Graeme


The Football Analyst Bets for 11th/12th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Crewe Port Vale 2.05 1.50
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.64
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Barnsley v Birmingham Barnsley 3.93 2.83
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Wycombe Wycombe 9.00 7.12
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Barnet v Swindon Barnet 4.33 3.11
11/02/2012 League 2 Crawley v Aldershot Aldershot 8.15 6.37
11/02/2012 League 2 Hereford v Cheltenham Hereford 4.33 3.12
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 3.10 2.22
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.64 New Criteria
11/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
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7 comments:

  1. Tasos11 February 2012 at 02:51

    We love u :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Steve12 February 2012 at 16:15

    Boy,have I missed you Graeme.Great result with West Brom mate.

    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  3. Graeme Dand13 February 2012 at 15:18

    Hi Tasos.

    Thanks for your comment. I believe you may be responsible for the sudden increase in Greek readers to my blog mate, so I should say thanks! I tried to read what you said about the blog but I didn’t get very far admittedly!

    Hi Steve.

    Great to see someone missed me mate. :) Yeah, great result for the selective systems yesterday. Couldn’t believe it when Wolves equalised in the game tbh as West Brom were so dominant but it turned out well in the end. Shame to see them sack big Mick though. He’s did a great job at Wolves in my opinion with limited resources. Expect them to possibly go down now. I have them as the weakest team in the Premiership at the moment with Wigan not too far in front!

    Graeme

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous15 February 2012 at 12:16

    Hi Graeme,
    the sudden increase in Greek readers to your blog is a result of an article in the Greek betting site antiopap.com that advertised your blog as one of the best betting blogs existing.. That 's also how I got here too, and I have to admit that your job is really good, nothing like this exists in Greece.. Keep walking..
    Markos, a Greek fan

    ReplyDelete
  5. Graeme Dand15 February 2012 at 13:39

    Hi Markos.

    Thanks for that. I’ll make mention of it in my next blog post. :)

    I’d managed to track down the site where the readers were coming from but when I tried to translate it into English, I couldn’t make out what it was saying. I assumed it was something nice but these days, you can never be sure!

    Thanks for reading and if you have any questions, please get in touch.

    Graeme

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous15 February 2012 at 15:34

      http://antiopap.com/content/view/4233/483/

      Here 's what you tried to find.. It's one of the few Greek sites with a serious approach to sports betting, and this article is all about you :).. I 'll do the translation for you.. :)

      ''After this (link) and this (link) i found one more: the-football-analyst.blogspot.com (Sorry for the english letter writing, but there is no Greek keyboard where I am) It 's a successfull experiment with football systems that was awarded the bronze medal from a well-known betting forum, as being the 3rd best football tipster in 2011. The strongest systems are the double ones: e.g. 6-21 The strongest one is 8-22.''

      P.S. Thanks for the welcome post, as you guessed the title doesn't really make sense but we can understand that you wanted to say ''Καλώς ήρθατε Έλληνες φίλοι μου'' but the Google translation is unfortunately poor.. Don't change the title, is makes us smile when we see it (rare to smile as being a Greek nowadays) :(

      Καλή τύχη φίλε,
      Markos

      Delete
  6. Graeme Dand15 February 2012 at 15:49

    Thanks for that Markos. Very much appreciated.

    Yeah, I guessed the title would make some of you laugh. I know a little bit of French from my school days but never been to Greece unfortunately!

    You should maybe pass my blog link onto your Economic Advisors in Greece. You can do with all the help you can get at the moment. 

    Hopefully you enjoy the blog for the rest of this season.

    Graeme

    ReplyDelete

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