Sunday, 27 May 2012

System 6-21 Review

The next series of reviews are ultimately the most important reviews this Summer. I suspect at least 90% of current TFA followers follow at least one of the combined systems and after the season they’ve had, I can’t imagine people will be deserting these systems any time soon!

System 6-21

OK, the first way to analyse the combined systems has to be to compare the results of each individual system and check that cross referring the systems works and doesn’t actually make the performance of the systems worse.

Last Season

System 6 – 573 bets, 4.3% ROI
System 21 – 489 bets, 4.7% ROI
System 6-21 – 298 bets, 9.1% ROI

This Season

System 6 – 712 bets, 5.9% ROI
System 21 – 562 bets, 10.5% ROI
System 6-21 – 480, 11.1% ROI

Two things to highlight from these results then. Firstly, cross referring the systems works well. You can increase the ROI by reducing the number of bets. It worked much better last season as the single systems struggled a little but by cross referring the systems, you could have nearly doubled the ROI. Less of an impact this season as System 21 had a great season, regardless of what system 6 did but even so, a small increase in ROI on 6-21 this season compared to 6 or 21.

The second thing is the key though. I’ve managed to increase the number of bets on 6-21 this season from a result of all the tweaks last Summer to 6 and 21 but thankfully, it hasn’t resulted in a drop in performance. As discussed before, there is a trade off at this game between the number of bets and ROI and simply, as you increase the number of bets, you expect the ROI to fall. Most of the additional bets that made its way onto system 21 also made its way on system 6-21 this season and it has actually results in a better performance.  

The other way to look at is the performance of the bets on 6 and 21 that didn’t appear on 6-21 this season.  System 6 had 232 bets that didn’t appear on 6-21 and they made a loss of 11.4pts.  System 21 had 82 bets that didn’t appear on 6-21 this season and they made a profit of 5.5pts.

I think the above highlights the power of the combined systems. You can effectively use 6-21 to get rid of the worst bets on system 6 and 21 as when the other system doesn’t like the bet, it tends to let you know it isn’t a good bet.

A loss on League 2 Aways is the only blip this season on this system and again, it’s a 3 year losing streak on this system for these bets. A 37pt loss over the last 3 seasons is reduced to a break-even result is using AH0.5 and I suspect this is the way to play League 2 Aways going forward if you want to try to act on this trend.

Homes and Aways both performed very well with a 10% return on Aways this season (6.7% last season) and a 14.4% return on Homes this season (17% last season).  Homes are slightly stronger than Aways on 6-21 but Aways have 3 times as many bets, so you’d expect Aways to have a slightly lower ROI.

The P&L graphs are brilliant for this system and although there was a spell where a small loss was made over 300 bets (second half of last season), it isn’t far off a perfect 45 degree line since the system went live two seasons ago.

This is also reflected in the drawdown graph where the max drawdown has only been 20pts. I should also point out the AH graphs look equally great on this system which isn’t always the case.

Last Summer, I suggested a bank of 45pts based on the max drawdown of 17pts. Again, this is a very conservative bank! The max drawdown crept up a little to 20pts after the poor start this season.

The profit this season was 53.3pts, so a ROC of 118.4%.

Even though I thought 45pts was very conservative last Summer, I actually think it wouldn’t too conservative to have a bank of 45pts going forward. The average odds are higher now than before and there are more bets than before. Looking at the drawdown graph, there are a number of drawdowns around the 15pt-20pt mark and therefore, I’d be wary of 45pts actually being a safe bank.

I’d maybe say 50pts for next season. There should be around 450 bets and I think an ROI of 8% is probably a good target. This could be conservative given the system has made 9.1% and 11.1% in the first two seasons.  That would give a profit of 36pts and a ROC of 72%.  A season similar to the first two would see this ROC increase I suspect.  

72% as a conservative view of target ROC next season….Doesn’t sound too bad does it?

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