Sunday, 27 May 2012

System 22 Review

System 22

I see system 22 as the ‘enforcer system’ in the sense it controls the bets that appear on 6-22,7-22 and 8-22. Considering 7-22 and 8-22 are the two best systems in terms of ROI, a lot of this is down to the influence of system 22 as it doesn’t give bets out for the sake of it!

Last season’s performance ended up with a profit of 8.2% from 245 bets but a few of my tweaks last Summer were always going to impact this system. The idea was to increase the quality of the bets on system 22, reduce the number slightly and therefore, end up with a tighter set of systems for 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22.  Did it work?

Well, the bet number dropped from 245 bets last season to 133 bets. The pts profit was 20.2pts last season and 20.7pts this season. Hence, the ROI has increased from 8.2% to 15.6%. Therefore, at a high level, yes, the tweaks worked.

The other thing I really like about system 22 is the returns from the AH bets. Even covering the draw fully using AH0.5 resulted in a profit of 11.3% last season and 7.5% this season.  That’s very good going for any system and this is right in line with the backtested results too.  When you consider the max drawdown is less than 10pts for all AH types of bet, then using a small betting bank, you can actually achieve a very high ROC on this system for the AH bets. Definitely worth considering a strategy on this system of high stakes and using AH betting to achieve a decent ROC over a season.

Like most systems, Aways on League Two really struggled this season but interestingly, there is definitely a long-term trend apparent here. A loss of 23.7% 09/10, a loss of 20.0% in 10/11 and a loss of 27.4% last season.  That’s a clear trend and definitely should be looked at in depth.  It’s the first system so far that has suffered losses for 3 seasons straight and you have to think there is an underlying issue with this system and League Two aways.

Over the same period, a profit of 9.7pts across 122 bets was achieved if using AH0.5. Therefore, I wouldn’t put anyone off using AH0.5 or some sort of draw coverage for these Away bets in this league. They tend to be quite high average odds which means there is a thin line between winning and losing if selections are drawing too many games but after 3 poor seasons, definitely worth considering taking the draw coverage on these Aways in this league.

The low number of bets on this system since it went live can be seen in the volatility of the monthly results with 6 out of 9 winning months this season and 5 out of 9 last season. Hence, 7 losing months in 18 looks quite poor but with so few bets each month, it would be fortunate to hit a profit on most months. (Also shows how good system 8 has done with fewer bets but 15 out of 18 winning months!).

The one disappointment during this season was the performance of Home bets. Historically, Home bets on system 22 have been unbelievable and in their first live season, they achieved an ROI of 43.9% across 27 bets. This season, across 26 bets, it is an ROI of 14%.  It feels a bit mad to say that’s disappointing as I’d take a 14% return every year on any system but I guess the system set high expectations during the first season. Maybe missing 3 or 4 winners to achieve the level of performance I’d have hoped for but even so, it’s not a disaster!

The biggest tweak to this system was the reduction in the number of Aways as discussed above and it worked well. A profit of 3.8% last season became 16% this season across roughly 50% of the bet number. Nice when things work out like I plan. ;)

The P&L graph is interesting and again, you can see the impact from the second half of the first season and the start of this season where the system made no profit and actually made a loss across 180 bets.  However, it then went on an amazing run and made a profit of 22pts across 9 bets with 8 winners and one loser (which was a draw!). This included winners at 6.2, 4.0, 4.0, 4.50 and 4.81. Not bad for a winning streak!

Last Summer, I suggested a betting bank 65pts when the biggest drawdown was 25pts. A similar theme again here but that betting bank is very conservative!

Anyway, a profit of 20.7pts this season would mean a ROC of 32%. Doesn’t sound great but that’s what happens when you overcapitalise your betting bank.

The biggest drawdown remains 25pts and therefore, I would have to think a safe bank of 50pts or thereabouts would be better.

A target ROI would be 10% for this system and I’d expect around 125 bets next season, so a target profit of 12.5pts. This would give a ROC of 25% on a pretty safe betting bank.

The ways to increase this ROC on the system has to be to play higher stakes on Homes and definitely use some form of AH betting on the Aways. Suspect it could double the ROC easily and make this a much more feasible system to follow. Either that or play with a much aggressive betting bank than I’m suggesting which is always a good way to increase ROC! :)


  1. Hi Graeme,

    I'm thoroughly enjoying these reviews and making notes along the way. I know there's quite a few to go yet, but I was wondering if you had any thoughts on how far a bank could be leveraged when using multiple systems?

    My first thought was that if you were following these first 5 systems with a combined 260 point bank that would be way above what was required in reality, as you would be unlikely to hit a period of drawdown in each system at the same time. But then as some systems are linked, and therefore selections are duplicated, I'm not so sure on second thoughts.

    With a smaller combined bank, and a sensible leverage applied, could the ROC's be improved? I don't want to distract from your sequence of reviews so feel free to answer at a later stage.


  2. Hi Mark.

    Good question and definitely something worth covering mate. I've covered it last Summer but definitely worth an update now. What I'll do is add this to the list of questions across at the website under the FAQ section called 'Future Analysis'. Your question is there now. ;)

    Glad you are enjoying the reviews. Once I get these out of the way, I'll start working through the questions I've logged at the site.

    In the background, I've also started work on the new Euro systems as I've finished the second rating algorithm for these other leagues. I suspect you'll have plenty to read for the next few months mate. Best make sure you have enough space to write the notes you'll need! :)