Below is an attachment which will form the basis for the
2011/12 Systems Reviews.
This attachment should be looked at in conjunction with the
blog postings over the next week or so. Once all individual
system reviews are carried out, they will be included on a single page on the
blog entitled Systems Reviews 2011/12. I hope to do the system reviews over the
next week or so, so keep reading the
blog.
Key things to remember when using data like this are:
· The
historical results aren’t meant to be an indication of future profitability.
Yes, the systems are built looking at historical results but one season of
proofed results is worth 100 seasons of backtested results. Hence, place much more weight on live
results.
· Don’t worry
too much about the fact the performance appears to worsen over time on many
systems. It is the way the systems are built. Other services tweak the ratings
and systems after every season and then restate the backtested results. This
isn’t happening here, so the live results are really live results and not
backtested results after tweaks to the systems!
Put simply, there are many systems that look great during backtesting
and backfitting but fail when they go live. These systems (touch wood) have
shown they work live and will hopefully continue to do so.
· Analysing
backtested/live results may help you spot potential weaknesses in the rating
algorithms or systems but be VERY careful about increasing or decreasing stakes
based on a certain criteria unless it is based on a large sample of live
data. IMO, a large sample needs to be
hundreds of bets, possibly thousands of bets. If you start interfering with the
system bets and trying to cherry pick a certain type of selection, you are
likely to decrease your chances of winning long-term.
· Don’t buy
into trends too much as it is only a trend, not a guaranteed change. Hence, a
league which may be the best season one season may be the worst next
season. Likewise, a league which is
losing one season may be winning next season. Don’t fall into the trap of
backfitting your own portfolio to follow!
· Be careful
about writing off the Asian Handicap returns as clearly, when you see the
graphs compared to the outright returns, they are nowhere nearly as good.
However, for a subsection of bets, it may be the case that AH can smooth your
returns. Then again, they may not!
· There are
very minor data issues apparent within the data. With any large sample of data, there can be
small discrepancies thrown up within the data.
As far as I am aware, none of the issues are material or even close to
being material. For example, a
Premiership Away bet may have slipped onto a system even though they were not
to meant to appear on that system. I know why (Premiership was spelt
incorrectly for that bet!) but all bets stand as given. Likewise, I’ve put the
odd bet on 6-21 last season even though it didn’t appear on 21 as it was
dropped due to a price change at the last moment. Things like this aren’t
material!
OK, without further ado, here is the attachment for you to
download.
The spreadsheet is 9MB in size and therefore, may take a
while to download depending on your connection speed. The two sheets with the
actual data in it (I’ve pasted it in this overall sheet as values!) were about
100MB in size!
If there are any questions, post them up here or comment on
the individual blog posts. If people spot a glaring error within the data, please email me
at graemedand@hotmail.co.uk and I’ll take a look at it!
Once the system reviews are completed, I’ll tidy up the data
sitting behind the analysis and I will be sharing the historical results with
all members of the 2012/13 season. This data will NOT be shared with non
members. The purpose of the additional data release is to help Excel savvy
members do their own analysis to help form a view of systems to follow for next
season. Those without the Excel skills required can rely on my help this Summer
as promised!
Enjoy.
I also meant to say that there are 160 tables showing the profitability of all 20 systems, split by season, league, season and league, by month, by Home and Away, by Home and Away and Season, by League and Home and Away, by Season and League and Home and Away. It also shows the profitability of backing outright, using AH0, AH0.25 and AH0.50.
There are also 120 graphs in here too for those that like
pictures, showing P&L since inception, P&L live and drawdowns for each
of the 4 methods of betting.
I appreciate that this isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but then
again, I hope some of you appreciate the time and effort that goes into producing
something like this. :)
Graeme,
ReplyDeleteThat spreadsheet is pretty awesome. If anyone deserves to become a betting millionaire you must be right up there.
All the best,
Mark
I agree 100%!!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment Mark. It made me chuckle!
ReplyDeleteAll I hope for is that these systems give me another 5 seasons like the last two seasons mate and although I may not make a million from my own betting by then, the combined winnings for those following will be in the millions I suspect!
As you know yourself, past performance can never guarantee future profitability but after 8,000+ proofed bets, I’d be disappointed if the edge vanished overnight on the systems! Always try to keep my feet on the ground along with everyone else following but so far, so good.
The Holy Grail for me personally is to be able to repeat what I’ve done in the UK leagues for the other top Euro leagues. If I do that, you’re suggestion wouldn’t be a million miles away I hope! :)
Well done on the recent revival with your own P&L by the way. Your P&L graph is much steadier than mines but it’s the difference between trading and gambling I guess. Until this season, I’d classed myself as a trader rather than a gambler but I took the plunge last season after a shaky first season with the systems if I’m honest and thankfully, it went really well.
Let’s hope the next 12 months are as profitable for both of us!
Graeme
Cheers Cat!
ReplyDeleteI've not written the reviews for any of the systems yet and people are saying how good the spreadsheet is! The spreadsheet is just a tool really. You still need to be able to use it. ;)
Graeme