Saturday, 26 May 2012

System 21 Review

The theme for this system review is probably the fact that there are subscribers following my systems who are better at analysing the systems than me! A subscriber told me last Summer he thought system 21 would have a good season this season and I doubted him. I was wrong, he was right and he’s achieved a much higher ROC this season than I have if I’m honest. ;)

System 21

I think many of the comments that applied to system 7 apply to system 21.  When I first developed this system, I thought it looked like a very good system but after starting well in its first season, it finished the season very badly (along with all my systems really!)  and I sort of wrote this system off as a system to follow after last season.

The results last season was an ROI of 4.7% from 489 bets and I sort of resigned myself to the fact this system was never going to be a system that can achieve an ROI of 10%+.  Interestingly, I exchanged emails with a subscriber last Summer who had a little bit more faith in 21 for this season and he chose that as one of his systems in his portfolio to follow.  I think he’d really bought into the fact the results on this system were badly affected by the Aways drawing last season and therefore, 4.7% wasn’t the underlying performance for this system.

Anyway, I didn’t really buy into everything he said and after a shocking start this season, I felt my thoughts were justified. As usually happens though, the systems have the ability to make a fool of you no matter how much you think you know the systems!

The results this season were a profit of 58.8pts from 562 bets. An ROI of 10.5%. 

Pretty stunning results if I’m honest and when you think it made 6% ROI for AH0 last season and 6.1% for AH0 this season, it shows it has had a fair few draws this season too, so to hit a 10.5% ROI outright is exceptional.

A loss in League Two for the second season in a row is something to keep an eye on for next season but that’s the only blip in the performance by league. The Away bets were to blame again which is easily becoming a common theme. An ROI of 44% in the Premiership from 52 bets is amazing but it did very well in the SPL and Bsq Prem too this season.

The system had 7 winning months from 9 this season and I think the monthly results are interesting on this system. Prior to going live, the systems had only suffered 3 losing months in 37 months. Since going live, it is 5 losses in 18 months but the actual monthly results resemble a boom or bust approach.  12 of the 13 winning months have had an ROI of 10%+. 4 of the 5 losing months have had ROI’s of -10% or less. 

I think this is interesting as it’s not a phenomenon I’d picked up before if I’m honest. It does lead me to think that when the ratings for algorithm two are working well, they really work well but when they are off, they are rubbish. I’ve said this before but the results in any period are correlated as the ratings for every team impact each other. Hence, when the ratings are inaccurate, they can do damage to your P&L in a short space of time! Vice versa is also true though. :)

Homes and Aways performed quite similarly this season even though historically, Homes have been much stronger bets. A 15.3% ROI on Homes last year was only 11.7% this season.  Clearly, the small tweaks last Summer has diluted the profitability of the Home bets a little but at least there are more bets now than before. It’s a trade off at this game between the number of bets and the ROI and I personally think system 21 had too few Homes bet before, so although I’ve reduced the ROI on the bets, the extra turnover should ensure there is no real impact on ROC.

I think it’s worth looking at the overall graph for this system as it’s another example of variance playing a part.

There is a clear spell of 400 bets during the first season and the start of this season where no profit was made at all. A lot of bets to standstill and make no profits but again, if you look at how the system picked up, it is a stunning recovery and shows why you can’t judge any system over a short period.

Last Summer then, after the terrible drawdown last season of 25pts, I suggested a betting bank of 65pts (again, that’s very conservative based on the drawdown graph!).  Anyway, this season, with a profit of 58.8pts, that would be a ROC of 90%! When you consider the betting bank of 65pts is a bit high based on the drawdown of 25pts, it is a stunning performance this season.  I take my hat off to the subscriber who decided to go with system 21 this season as part of his portfolio (you can actually see his ROC this season for his portfolio across at the subscriber feedback page on the website!)

So, what would I say for the betting bank now? Well, the poor start this season meant the max drawdown actually grew to 28pts.  Based on the previous 3,000 bets, I’d have to say a betting bank of 60pts is probably adequate going forward.

Looking at the number of bets this season, I would expect system 21 to have in the region of 500 bets next season. It has had between 442 and 562 for the last 6 seasons, so 500 seems about right.

A target ROI is difficult as I think it outperformed this season with a 10% ROI. I’d maybe say the target is 6% on this system. Hence, a 6% ROI across 500 bets would be 30pts profit. With a bank of 60pts, that would mean an expected ROC of 50%.  Sounds about right for this system going forward. 

4 system reviews down and I have to say system 21 has been the best performing system this season I've reviewed so far. 16 reviews left though, so not drawing any conclusions but I hope readers see the potential in some of the systems, other than just the 6 combined systems or system 7/22 and 8/22. 

A last thing to mention. It makes me laugh when I read on forums about tipsters proofing 100 bets, making a 50% ROC to realistic prices and then assuming people will queue up to subscribe to the newly launched service. System 21 doesn't even get a mention as a decent system from me or my subscribers and yet, it achieved a 90% ROC this season with a very safe betting bank! If there is one thing people should get from these reviews, it's that there are a lot of people out there trying to make a quick buck from marketing systems which are not even in the same league as some of my systems. That's not just my opinion, that's a fact! 

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