Thursday, 31 May 2012

System 7-21 Review

There is a common theme appearing at the moment to do with AH betting. I suspect that to maximise the return on capital (ROC) on some of these systems, we really need to try to reduce the variance a little by using AH. Reducing this variance is the key if we really want to squeeze as much profit from these systems as we can. 

System 7-21

Last Season

System 7 – 293 bets, 4.9% ROI
System 21 – 489 bets, 4.7% ROI
System 7-21 – 188 bets, 19.4% ROI

This Season

System 7 – 200 bets, 11.4% ROI
System 21 – 562 bets, 10.5% ROI
System 7-21 – 171 bets, 14.2% ROI

As you can see clearly above, this combined system really comes into its own in terms of increasing the ROI’s achieved on the single systems.  Last season was unreal if I’m honest where the bets that didn’t appear on 7-21 but appeared on 7 or 21 did poorly. Not as obvious a change this season but still, you can see that 7-21 increases the return achieved compared to backing either of the individual systems.

I think it’s quite interesting that system 7-21 has actually had a poorer season than last season even though both individual systems have had a much better season!  Difficult to fathom if I’m honest and totally against what you would expect would happen.  Quite interesting I guess that system 7 and 21 are much better this season and 7-21 appears to be worse.

Even so, a 14.2% ROI is nothing to be ashamed of and I think that’s an important point here. People following 7-21 last season may have been disappointed with only achieving a 14.2% ROI but as I keep saying on the blog, you really need to keep things in perspective with my footie systems. Tipsters would cut their arm off for this level of ROI, so I’m not going to knock the system. Hasn’t lived up to the first season’s performance but over two season’s to date, an ROI of 16.9% across 359 bets is a great platform to build on in future seasons.

The results by league are interesting on this system with Away losses on the Championship, League One and League Two games.  League Two has been losing for three seasons straight and again, it’s a similar theme I’ve covered already this Summer. Draw coverage on that league may be the way to go in future to help minimise the exposure in this league.

Aways in general struggled on this system this season and a lowly ROI of 8% was achieved. This 21% last season although the last backtested season had an ROI of 7.6% on Aways, so this season mirrored the 2009/10 season possibly.

Homes did great this season again on this system with an ROI of 24.8% to follow up the 14.9% last season.

The system started the season very badly with 3 winners in the first 19 bets this season in September and it had another 3 losing months this season. 5 winning months from 9 isn’t great but the low number of bets is solely to blame for this I think.

Overall, since the system went live, it has had 12 winning months from 18.

I think the P&L graphs are interesting and again, you can see that using some form of AH will help smooth the journey on this system.  AH drawdowns are very low and therefore, using some form of AH bet on Aways possibly will reduce the max drawdown and reduce the size of the betting bank needed, thus increasing the ROC achieved.

Last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 40pts based on the drawdown of 15pts.  The max drawdown is now 19pts after the start this season. Given the low number of bets, I think a bank of 40pts is adequate still and it’s one of the few systems where I got the betting bank right after the first season I think!

So, a profit of 24.3pts this season means a ROC of 60%. A pretty decent return over the season.  I suspect this can easily be improved by playing some form of AH this system although I’d need to look at it in depth to know for sure.

Going forward, I’d say 160 bets is maybe the norm (was slightly more this season), a target ROI of 12% and a profit target of 19.2pts. That would equate to a target ROC of 48%. That’s a decent target and I think it’s conservative considering the ROI has been greater the last two seasons.

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