Wednesday, 30 May 2012

System 6-22 Review

System 6-22

Similar to the other combined systems, I think the first thing to check is whether combining system 6 and 22 actually improves the results of each system.

Last Season

System 6 – 573 bets, 4.3% ROI
System 22 – 245 bets, 8.2% ROI
System 6-22 – 185 bets, 13.7% ROI

This Season

System 6 – 712 bets, 5.9% ROI
System 22 – 133 bets, 15.6% ROI
System 6-22 – 127, 12.7% ROI

OK, this is definitely not as clear cut as system 6-21 was.  Last season, it definitely helped to cross refer the systems and it increased the returns a great deal from doing this. Interestingly, it’s not as impressive this season but it is only based on 6 bets! Quite a stunning statistic but last season, 60 bets appeared on 22 that didn’t appear on system 6 and this season, only 6 bets fulfilled this criteria!

This must be linked to the changes last Summer as basically, I spent some time trying to understand why some bets on system 21 & 22 didn’t appear on system 6 and ultimately, I tweaked 6 to bring in more bets from the second algorithm. The second algorithm is a better algorithm (probably since it was built after the first one and I knew what I was doing then!) and therefore, I’m not as surprised as some may be at the changes above.

What is slightly annoying is that the 6 bets that system 6 didn’t like actually contained 3 winners at decent odds, so 6-22 ended up with a lower profit than system 22!

Going forward, I expect this to continue and the vast majority of bets on system 22 are likely to be on system 6, so there should be a very high correlation between system 22 and system 6-22.

It’s hard to compare system 6 to 22 as 6 is a high turnover, lower ROI system whereas 22 is a higher ROI, lower turnover system. It’s easy to see that cross referring 6-22 is better than system 6 but then again, it’s obvious it would be as it has so fewer bets.

League Two aways were the main culprit on this system again and it’s the 3rd system in a row they have lost on the system. Basically, I could write more about this but it’s the same as I said on system 22!

The system ended the season poorly with two losing months and it had 6 profitable months from 9. Since it went live, it is 12 profitable from 18, so losing months happen fairly regularly due to the low bet number.

Homes finished the season with a below average (for this system!) ROI of 14% and Aways had an ROI of 12.3%.

One thing that does stand out from looking at the graphs of the profit lines is how stable the AH lines are. Using AH0.5 on all Aways over the last two seasons produces a near 12% ROI. When you consider the smooth P&L journey this would bring (you can see the full AH0.5 graph), then I would suspect you’re playing with a very small bank if you did AH0.5 on Aways. The biggest drawdown for using AH0.5 on all bets is only 8pts, so maybe a bank of 20pts would be sufficient for this system and AH0.5. When you consider it has made 30pts profit in two seasons, that’s n ROC of 150%.

I hope people reading these reviews are starting to appreciate that the aim of this game isn’t to achieve a high ROI or a great number of pts profit in a season, it is all about ROC. It may involve a change of mindset and whereas people are maybe winning lots more pts than you, if you are playing 5 times the stake they are due to the lower betting bank needed, you’ll be making more money!

OK, last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 50pts which was based on the 19pts drawdown. A profit of 16.1pts this season gives an ROC of 32%.  Similar comments to 22 I guess and the ROC looks poor but if you cover the draw in some way, you’ll be able to reduce the betting bank needed dramatically and increase the ROC greatly on this system.

Going forward, the betting bank has to be in line with system 22 given the high correlation between the systems. However, the highest drawdown here is 19 (compared to 25 on system 22), so I think 40pts would be OK here.  Of course, this shows the madness in using past drawdowns for future banks. The historical drawdowns are meaningless in a way as the system isn’t the same system it was in the first season! Hence, system 6-22 and 22 are basically the same system and yet, I suggest a 20% lower bank on 6-22.

Anyway, let’s go with 40pts as a bank. There will be around 125 bets and a target ROI of 10% seems right. That gives a target profit of 12.5pts and a ROC of 31%.

Let’s imagine you played 1pt on AH0.5 for both Home and Away bets even though we know doing this on Homes broke even last season (dutching the draw on home bets means you are laying the Away team at big odds usually!). The highest drawdown has been 8pts to date. Let’s say a bank of 20pts is needed.

125 bets and the ROI should be around 8% although based on the first two seasons, it’s sitting at 11.4% but I know this is because of too many draws in the first season.

So, 8% would generate a profit of 10pts. With a bank of 20pts, that’s an ROC of 50%.  Much better than the 31% from backing outright.  Just a very quick example but it opens your eyes to what is possible with these systems I hope!

If you were to play Homes outright, I’d suggest the drawdown wouldn’t increase by much and you can increase the ROC by further too.

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