Introduction to the European Ratings

I’m not sure about any readers but I’m really pleased to be able to close the book on the performance of the systems from last season (for the moment) and a new chapter begins on the blog with the introduction of the new European ratings.

I’ve thought long and hard about whether I need to go down the route of looking at more leagues.  I asked subscribers for feedback last season and if I’m honest, the response was split 50/50 with some subscribers saying I had to try to look at more leagues if I wanted to really crack this game and take it to the next level. However, others suggested that I didn’t have anything else to prove to anyone and why not just concentrate on improving the returns on the UK leagues and over time, by increasing stakes on these leagues, we’d make as much as we would from introducing more leagues.

It’s an interesting one really as I see both sides.  Being honest, I don’t personally feel like I have anything to prove to anyone now.  I think there was a time when I wanted to prove that by using my analytical skills, I could find us an edge on the footie markets but that’s been and gone now. If anyone doubts my systems have an edge on the UK leagues, then they don’t understand betting.  Whether that edge remains for the future and whether the systems can repeat the performance of the first two seasons is out of my hands to a large extent but at the moment, there is no football system I know of that is as good as some of my systems.

I won’t be tweaking any of the UK systems this Summer, so next season, we’ll effectively pick up where we left off this season with the same systems producing the same sort of bets as they’ve been doing for a while now.  My hope is that they continue producing the same level of profits they’ve been doing for two seasons and of course, I’ll keep tracking the results closely and if I see anything I don’t like, I’ll be in a position to act on it and hopefully ensure I keep these systems on track.

So, if I don’t have anything to prove, why bother with more leagues?  Well, it’s two fold. 

Firstly, I struggle to get my bets on at the prices I’m quoting to subscribers now. I’m a smart cookie though and I’m sure I’ll be able to keep ahead of the bookies and I suspect I’ll become more selective with my bets going forward and I’ll probably cherry pick certain teams and place these bets early on in the week and snap up some of the early lines with some Asians etc. Doing little things like this will ensure I keep my edge as big as I can even though the net will no doubt continue to close in on me as the systems continue to produce profits.  

I’m sure the time will come when bookmakers realise I’m the one cherry picking them off when they quote standout prices for teams that are then followed by others later in the week, so I expect it won’t get easier for me to make money betting on my own selections.  I’ll continue reinvesting my profits from each season and sooner or later, I’ll be playing all my betting with the big Asian bookmakers who won’t restrict me from winning but it will erode part of the edge my systems have. That’s a fact but it’s one I can live with though.

Having more leagues to play in means I can continue to spread the stakes around and of course, it is a great way for me to diversify the risk. If I can create another selection of systems that produce similar levels of returns to the UK systems, then over a season, it may be the case that the UK systems could struggle but the European systems could bail me out. The reverse may also be true!

Secondly, a large part of this game for me is to allow others to follow my work and make money along with me.  I know some people struggle at the moment getting on in the UK leagues and as time goes on, if the UK systems continue winning, this will only get harder. People will be reinvesting their profits, average stakes will be going up, I’ll have more people following and all of a sudden, when system 7-22 has a bet, it is getting smashed in from the bookies as they don’t want the liabilities on these teams.  This erodes the edge on the system, people start chasing prices, and before we know it, the edge is basically gone on the system or more likely, reduced to such an extent that people decide it’s not worth following.

The new European systems will concentrate on the top leagues in France, Germany, Spain and Italy next season.  There will be NO liquidity issues in these leagues next season or at any point in the future and therefore, if I can get the new Euro systems to produce the same sort of returns as the UK systems, then it opens so many doors for my subscribers but also for me too as more people can follow the bets. 

Of course, followers of mines also benefit from the first point above around diversification. Hence, I don’t see a negative to subscribers if I introduce more systems.

The possible negative I’ve had highlighted to me is the connotation for the service that comes with having a set of systems which perform poorly. I’ve been lucky so far with the football systems in the sense everything I’ve touched has turned to gold nearly. Of course, there have been failures to a degree and I had my first losing system last season on system 33 but then again, it’s hardly a disaster when the other 19 systems were profitable.  The Under/Over 2.5 goal systems didn’t set the SBC forum alight last season either although they weren’t a disaster.

I think people worry that if I go down the route of looking at more leagues and I don’t succeed, there is a chance it will undermine the service and ultimately, may lead to the demise of the service.  I can understand their point but the important thing for me is that these European systems aren’t seen as a replacement to the UK systems. They will supplement the systems.

If it is the case that the new systems all bomb next season and lose badly, then so be it. I can say I’ve tried and failed to find something that works for the European Leagues. The important thing for me is that people understand the risk that comes with following a new system. Following a new system is like following a brand new tipster, regardless of what the backtested results are like. 

One quote I’ve used before is that one live season’s results is worth 100 seasons of backtested results. I strongly believe this to be the case and therefore, if given a choice of following a new European system or a UK system next season, people HAVE to choose the UK system. Of course, I’ll dabble with the European systems next season as I’m sure a fair number of subscribers will.  There is no better way to learn about a system or set of systems than to follow it yourself.  However, I do so in the knowledge that the UK systems will determine my profitability next season. That’s the way it has to be.  Others will be aware of this too.

Likewise, the success of the service next season will be based on the UK systems. Yes, I’m sure people will try their best to point out the fact the European systems have lost if this turns out to be the case but you know what, it doesn’t matter. What matters is that those following the service make a profit and next  season, the Euro systems won’t define the profits that people make!

Overall then, I feel like I have nothing to lose by trying to build new ratings for the European Leagues next season. Recent history tells me that I’ve got a good chance of building something that works (11 from 11 systems profitable in the first season, 19 from 20 profitable in the second season) and therefore, I should be confident that I can do this.  If someone can build a new set of systems for the top European Leagues, The Football Analyst can!

Wish me luck……..