I feel like this table below now supersedes anything I’ve
written on the blog and this should now be the point of contact for anyone
following the systems or thinking of following the systems going forward.
Before I get on with discussing the new Euro ratings, I’d
like to finish off the system reviews by reviewing the portfolio of systems
6-21 to 8-22. These are the systems I’m
proofed on from the Secret Betting Club and it is also the portfolio of systems
that most people followed last season.
Therefore, I feel like I should review how these 6 systems performed in
a portfolio last season which is effectively what my proofed results
represent.
If there is one thing that should be taken from the
system reviews I’ve done, it’s that The Football Analyst service is much more
than just 6 combined systems and much more than just following a selection of
systems and placing 1pt on every selection. If you really want to squeeze every
ounce of profit from the service, you will need to do your own work and try to
work out a way of following the systems that suits your own betting needs and
your own betting targets.
Anyway, below is the table I referred to above. It is also available to view across at the
website:
I’ll add to the table with the other new systems as and
when they are built but of course, the new systems will have no live results,
so the info won’t be anywhere near as meaningful as it is for these 20 systems
shown above at the moment.
Graeme.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff as always. Whilst most people seem to be focusing around 7.22, it would seem that 6.21 is the system that should be followed on a ROC basis, based on both live results, and how you expect the systems to perform next year.
However 7.22 is not far behind, and if you can double stakes on home bets without adjusting the bank, then 7.22 is the king again.
However, this assumes the live results replicating themselves next year, whereas in reality you are only expecting a slight drop off in 6.21 performance versus a more significant drop off in the performance of 7.22.
The other advantage 6.21 would have is that we are less likely to see the effect of variance (I think).
Whether you opt for 6.21 or 7.22, the next thing to look at would be AH0 returns. Based on live results, and respective AH0 banks of 30pts and 17.5pts I think AH0 gives an even better ROC return.
One question I would like you to consider would be if adopting an AH0 approach, should that be on both homes and aways?
Likw
Hi Andy. Not sure if your comment was cut off or not! Anyway, I'll reply to the above. Post again if you had more to say! :)
ReplyDeleteI think the crux of your question will be picked up later this Summer when I analyse the list of things on my to-do list across at the site. There is a tab called Future Analysis under the FAQ section and I think your question is already picked up there to a large extent. If you are solely interested in maximising ROC (which tbh, we should all be), I’ll be surprised if you can do it without some use of AH on Aways. Aways bring volatility to the systems, so the way around it is to use the draw.
Being honest, there are too many permutations for me to look at personally. I can’t say there is a single way to maximise ROC on any system or portfolio as it depends how aggressive you are with your betting bank.
You mention system 7-22. It didn’t have a drawdown of over 5pts last season. Hence, I can’t see anyone playing 35pts bank next season! I think most play 20-30pts and play 2pts on Homes too, so the ROC I’ve stated in that table is way understated on 7/22.
Again, I’ve went with a target ROI rather than what I think the system may make. I think 15% ROI on system 7-22 would be brilliant next season. However, the fact it’s made much more than this during the first two seasons means it may make more.
I didn’t want to set targets whereby if it makes 15% next season, people say it’s had a rubbish season! I had people telling me they’d made 50% ROC and 10% ROI this season and that was rubbish compared to what others had achieved with the service. I mentioned this on the blog I think but when people say stuff like that to me, it just winds me up.
There is a new service in the SBC forum quoting an ROI of 5.1% and a ROC of 47.8% to best prices (from some bookies I wouldn’t even think of quoting from!). I’m not having a go (as I always say, supply and demand dictates prices of services) but that system wouldn’t even be in the top 10 TFA systems. Of course, that system may well make more in subs next season than my service but it’s a great advert for my service, if nothing else!
If that’s the going rate for a winning system, I’ve got plenty of those to sell in future seasons! lol
Cheers,
Graeme