Thursday, 21 June 2012

Preview of System E2-E7

In many ways, this is probably the Euro system I’ve looked most forward to analysing. Everyone knows that system 7-22 is the favourite UK system of mines and although I wish it had more bets each season, you can’t exactly knock the returns the system has generated over the past two seasons. Therefore, it is my hope that one day (hopefully after next season!), that we consider this Euro system to be a on a par with system 7-22. Let’s see what it looks like.

System E2-E7

Well, the first thing that jumps off the page is on the season by season returns, the lowest season ROI is a measly 25%. Combine this with a decent number of bets each season and you can only say wow!

I quite like the fact the 3 seasons that are affected by backfitting to an extent have exceptional returns but as we look at the other 3 seasons, the returns may not be as spectacular but they are still very high.  The backtested results over the 3 seasons shows a profit of 28%. This is the best we’ve seen on any Euro system thus far.

The other thing I quite like here is the returns from the AH0 betting method.  The 3 backtested seasons have an ROI of 13% if using AH0. If we assume we can improve on this by only using it on Aways and outright on Homes, then I’d expect this return to improve. A quick look at the AH0 returns on Aways shows an ROI of 29.5% and Homes outright has an ROI of 28.1%. Seems like a simple strategy on this system!

The results by league show Germany and Italy as the strongest league with a gap back to Spain and France holding up the tail.  However, the French return of 22.4% isn’t bad!

One thing that isn’t as impressive on this system is the monthly profits.  Only 39 winning months from 50.  I think this is a great advert for variance again and whilst this is the best system we’ve seen so far I think, on a month by month basis, it can easily have a losing month or a spell of losing months. The system has actually had a losing run of 5 months from 9 before, so that shows what can happen!

The Homes return of 28.1% overall is amazing, as is the Aways return of 44.7%.   I particularly like the consistency of the Home bets each season with all 6 seasons between 21% and 33%.

The other consistency aspect I like is the returns by league and split between Homes and Aways. Apart from France being behind on the Away bets, the returns of the Homes and Aways by league is actually very similar.

The P&L graph is interesting and backs up what I was saying about the monthly profits. If you study the graph, you can see very regular spells of 50 bets (at least 3 or 4 of these spells) where the system actually makes no profit.  However, when it does make profits, it seems to make them in little spurts and seems to go on little winning runs.

I think this is also backed up by the drawdown graph.  The highest drawdown to date is only 13pts which is crazy really. The AH0.5 max drawdown is 22pts for comparison!

It makes it quite difficult to set a betting bank. Based on the 13pts, I’d probably say 30pts but considering there are no live results and I expect some people to follow this system, I’d say 40pts is probably safer for this first season.

I think we are looking at 150 bets a season.

If we study system 7-22, the two backtested seasons had an ROI of 28.6%.  Since going live, the system has achieved a return of 25.9%.  Amazing really! So, it has achieved a return which is 90% of the backtested return.

Applying the same methodology on this Euro system, we might expect this system to achieve a return in the region of 25% next season.

If we stick with this, we’d be saying a pts profit target of 37.5pts against a bank of 40pts (which is maybe conservative!).  Hence, we’d be looking to nearly double the betting bank as a target next season.

Call me a chicken (or a realist) but I don’t want to be setting a minimum target for a system of doubling it’s betting bank. If this system doubles its betting bank next season, I’ll be the happiest punter in the world, so I don’t feel like this should be the minimum target return next season.

I think setting a target of 25% return on any system is just wrong. If this system doesn’t already have enough pressure on it (being the brother of system 7-22), I don’t want to be setting targets that may end up making me look foolish.

So, I’m going to say this system has a target of 15% next season. Across 150 bets, this is a pts profit of 22.5pts. Based on a bank of 40pts, this a ROC target of 56%.  I think a 56% ROC target is a great target to aim for and fingers crossed (and legs and everything else), the system can turn out to be as good as it looks on paper. If that happens, I suspect we’ll all be increasing stakes the season after next on this system!