Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Preview of System E3

System E3

It’s interesting looking at the returns by season as you can’t help but feel disappointed with last season’s return. A 10.8% return last season is the lowest ever although one of the other backtested seasons 2008/9 only had a return of 14.5%. Two pretty low returns for the backtested seasons. The other backtested season in 2009/10 was a bumper season with a return of 31.6%.  At the end of the day, a 10% return isn’t a disaster for any footie system, so it’s just a lack of perspective again and comparing returns to other systems.  I’d take 10% return on any system!

Although Germany remains the dominant league here with France being the worst, France actually achieves a very respectable ROI of 21.3%, so it’s not a disaster by any means.

The loss in France last season is still predominant on this system too but the previous systems in France look a bit better than the other two systems I’ve just reviewed.

41 winning months and 9 losing months.  Average winning month is 18pts with the average losing month at 4.4pts.  It is interesting that there is a spell historically where this system had 7 losing months in 13 months. I think as we get less bets on the systems, monthly results means less and less as variance will play a part and a very profitable system could easily hit a number of losing months simply by bad luck more than anything else.

Aways really struggled last season and suffered a loss overall.  The previous lowest return for Aways in a season was 33%, so it could just be a bit of variance at play here last season.

Unlike the previous two systems, covering the draw fully on French Aways doesn’t increase your profits, so clearly, as we filter the bets, the systems are managing to weed out some of the draws in the French league.

The P&L graph looks pretty smooth and there don’t appear to be many big drawdowns. This is backed up by the drawdown graph where the max drawdown is 17pts with many drawdowns around the 13pts mark. I would expect a bank of 40pts is probably enough.

Going forward, I’d say that we are looking at 150 bets.

The ROI for all bets is 27.5% and 20.3% for the 3 backtested seasons.  If we look at system 8, the ROI for all backtesting was 26.7% and it was 24% for the 2 backtested seasons.

System 8 has performed very well when live and has achieved a ROI of 9.4% across two seasons to date.  This is around 40% of the backtested results.

If we assume that System E3 can achieve 40% of the backtested results, this is 40% of 20.3%.  This is a target ROI of 8%.

So, 150 bets with an ROI of 8%. This is a pts profit target of 12pts.  Based on a bank of 40pts, this is a target ROC of 30%.  Again, I would hope there is more potential upside here based on the ROI we have seen during backtesting. 

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