Friday, 22 June 2012

Preview of System E3-E6

Similar to when I was doing the system reviews straight after the UK season ended, doing the combined Euro previews is proving difficult in the sense of not repeating myself! I’ve already pointed out the trends on earlier systems for the system below (either system E3, E6, E1-E6 or E2-E6), so it’s difficult to write much more. If I have to look at French Away returns again, I’ll pull my hair out and I don’t have much left to work with!

Nearly there though and only one more to go after the one below. I’m actually looking forward to populating the performance summary table for all the Euro systems and seeing how they look compared to one another and compared to the UK systems too.  Looking forward to doing that but need to write one more review……

Here’s the second last one anyway.

System E3-E6

The season by season results are interesting and I think it’s the biggest variance I’ve seen on the annual results on any of the Euro systems.  The best season is 55.9% (2010/11 obviously!) and the worst seasons are two of the three backtested seasons with a lowly return of 13.9% and 15.1%. 

Before we worry too much, the other backtested season has a return of 41.6% which will bring up the overall backtested returns by a fair bit!

The results by league mirror most systems with Germany and Italy being the strongest and France providing the lowest return.   Similar to many other systems, France is losing last season and made a small return the previous season too.

39 winning months from 50 is lower than the higher volume systems but again, it is driven by variance as some months have fairly low bet numbers.  The average winning month is only 10.2pts whereas the average losing month is 3.7pts.

Last season, Aways lost overall on this system although they never had too many bets! I suspect with the low bet number each season for these Aways bet, the results could be very variable. If I look back a season, the return was 135.7% for these bets. Proves my point I think!

The away returns by league is amazing again with 3 of the 4 leagues having returns of 50%+. The French league lets the system down as expected!

The overall P&L graph is very close to the shape of E2-E6.  The system started badly with no profit for over 100 bets. Things then picked up before one helluva flat spell. I think this is as bad as I’ve seen on any of the combined Euro systems but the system made no profits over 200+ bets.  Nowadays, that would be a full season, so definitely something to bear in mind!

The drawdown graph looks decent with very few high drawdowns. The max drawdown is only 13pts. I would think a bank of around 30pts would be OK here.  I think we’re looking at 110 bets a season going forward.

Right, here’s where it gets interesting and I probably lose some readers!  System 8-21 had a full ROI of 29.1% across four seasons and 27.3% across backtested seasons.  When live, this system has achieved a return of 16.5%. Hence, it has achieved 60% of the backtested retruns.

This Euro system has a full ROI of 33.1% and a backtested ROI of 25.2%.  Hence, the ROI target should be 60% of this figure.  The target ROI is 15%.  Similar to the other recent systems, I’ll reduce this a little to 12%.

110 bets with a target ROI of 12%. This would be a pts profit target of 13pts. Against a bank of 30pts, a return on capital target of 43%.  

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