Similar to when I was doing the system reviews straight
after the UK season ended, doing the combined Euro previews is proving
difficult in the sense of not repeating myself! I’ve already pointed out the
trends on earlier systems for the system below (either system E3, E6, E1-E6 or E2-E6),
so it’s difficult to write much more. If I have to look at French Away returns
again, I’ll pull my hair out and I don’t have much left to work with!
Nearly there though and only one more to go after the one
below. I’m actually looking forward to populating the performance summary table
for all the Euro systems and seeing how they look compared to one another and
compared to the UK systems too. Looking
forward to doing that but need to write one more review……
Here’s the second last one anyway.
System E3-E6
The season by season results are interesting and I think
it’s the biggest variance I’ve seen on the annual results on any of the Euro
systems. The best season is 55.9%
(2010/11 obviously!) and the worst seasons are two of the three backtested seasons
with a lowly return of 13.9% and 15.1%.
Before we worry too much, the other backtested season has
a return of 41.6% which will bring up the overall backtested returns by a fair
bit!
The results by league mirror most systems with Germany
and Italy being the strongest and France providing the lowest return. Similar to many other systems, France is
losing last season and made a small return the previous season too.
39 winning months from 50 is lower than the higher volume
systems but again, it is driven by variance as some months have fairly low bet
numbers. The average winning month is
only 10.2pts whereas the average losing month is 3.7pts.
Last season, Aways lost overall on this system although
they never had too many bets! I suspect with the low bet number each season for
these Aways bet, the results could be very variable. If I look back a season,
the return was 135.7% for these bets. Proves my point I think!
The away returns by league is amazing again with 3 of the
4 leagues having returns of 50%+. The French league lets the system down as
expected!
The overall P&L graph is very close to the shape of
E2-E6. The system started badly with no
profit for over 100 bets. Things then picked up before one helluva flat spell.
I think this is as bad as I’ve seen on any of the combined Euro systems but the
system made no profits over 200+ bets.
Nowadays, that would be a full season, so definitely something to bear
in mind!
The drawdown graph looks decent with very few high
drawdowns. The max drawdown is only 13pts. I would think a bank of around 30pts
would be OK here. I think we’re looking
at 110 bets a season going forward.
Right, here’s where it gets interesting and I probably
lose some readers! System 8-21 had a
full ROI of 29.1% across four seasons and 27.3% across backtested seasons. When live, this system has achieved a return
of 16.5%. Hence, it has achieved 60% of the backtested retruns.
This Euro system has a full ROI of 33.1% and a backtested
ROI of 25.2%. Hence, the ROI target
should be 60% of this figure. The target
ROI is 15%. Similar to the other recent
systems, I’ll reduce this a little to 12%.
110 bets with a target ROI of 12%. This would be a pts
profit target of 13pts. Against a bank of 30pts, a return on capital target of
43%.
No comments:
Post a Comment