I suspect that this final combined system review shows how folly it is to set a betting bank based on a one-off historical drawdown. Based on the edge this system has, you would have to say that the drawdown experienced during the first season probably has a very low probability of happening again, never mind being more than twice as bad next time! Therefore, based on the max historical drawdown, you are going to end up with too high a bank and probably too low a ROC. There are ways around it though, you just need to find ways to increase the pts profit that doesn’t increase the drawdowns. Higher staked homes and AH aways would be the way to do it.
System 8 – 160 bets, 9.0% ROI
System 22 – 245 bets, 8.2% ROI
System 8-22 – 94 bets, 26.2% ROI
System 8 – 94 bets, 10.2% ROI
System 22 – 133 bets, 15.6% ROI
System 8-22 – 40 bets, 30.5% ROI
I hate saying this given the results above but in a way, system 8-22 is a useless system now. Inadvertently, by tightening up each algorithm, I’ve effectively squeezed too many bets out by filtering and by the time you get down to system 8-22, there aren’t enough bets left!
It says it all that it still managed to make a 30.5% ROI this season over only 40 bets but quite simply, you can’t follow a system seriously that has 40 bets a season. Of course, no matter what portfolio everyone is following, they should probably just add 8-22 to the portfolio as with 40 bets a season, win, lose or draw, the system isn’t going to do much damage in a season and based on results to date, it should make a profit.
497 bets across 6 seasons with an ROI of 34.7% is about as good as it gets but unfortunately, as a standalone system, it’s meaningless now. I’m sure people reading this would be thinking that playing £500 a point and making an ROI of 30% a season from staking £20k a season isn’t a bad idea but the risk that comes with that is huge. You could stake £20k in different ways across the season that reduces the risk and helps to ensure that if things go badly, you don’t end up broke. Of course, if any systems can dodge variance, this is probably it as it is so unique in the way it is built but I just have to think sooner or later, a few bets will lose and that profit will be reduced to zero over a season simply due to variance.
It’s impossible to analyse this system too much as 40 bets isn’t a near big enough sample to draw any conclusions from. The fact the system has managed to have 13 winning months from 17 since it went live is unbelievable given the small bet numbers each month but then again, it is so good at picking out the best bets.
The Homes were unreal on this system this season. 13 winners from 17 bets and an ROI of 48.8%. 15 from 22 last season when it achieved an ROI of 28.2%.
Aways weren’t bad either with a 17% ROI this season but down on the 25.6% ROI last season.
I think this system is another one of those that is scarred from the bad performance and drawdown in the second half of the first season.
I suggested a betting bank of 40pts based on the drawdown of 16pts. The max drawdown is 17pts now. Based on the fact you only get 50 bets a season now max, 40pts can’t be the right bank for a season.
The profit this season is 12.2pts which means a ROC of 30.5%. Very low again but can easily be improved by playing higher stakes on Homes. The highest drawdown for AH0.25 and AH0.5 is less than 5pts, so therefore, if you want to reduce the betting bank and increase the ROC, this would allow you to do this too.
Anyway, going forward then, 30pts bank, 50 bets and a target ROI of 20%. Gives a target ROC of 33%.