I suspect that this final combined system review shows
how folly it is to set a betting bank based on a one-off historical drawdown.
Based on the edge this system has, you would have to say that the drawdown
experienced during the first season probably has a very low probability of
happening again, never mind being more than twice as bad next time! Therefore,
based on the max historical drawdown, you are going to end up with too high a
bank and probably too low a ROC. There are ways around it though, you just need
to find ways to increase the pts profit that doesn’t increase the
drawdowns. Higher staked homes and AH
aways would be the way to do it.
System 8-22
Last Season
System 8 – 160 bets, 9.0% ROI
System 22 – 245 bets, 8.2% ROI
System 8-22 – 94 bets, 26.2% ROI
This Season
System 8 – 94 bets, 10.2% ROI
System 22 – 133 bets, 15.6% ROI
System 8-22 – 40 bets, 30.5% ROI
I hate saying this given the results above but in a way,
system 8-22 is a useless system now. Inadvertently, by tightening up each
algorithm, I’ve effectively squeezed too many bets out by filtering and by the
time you get down to system 8-22, there aren’t enough bets left!
It says it all that it still managed to make a 30.5% ROI
this season over only 40 bets but quite simply, you can’t follow a system
seriously that has 40 bets a season. Of
course, no matter what portfolio everyone is following, they should probably
just add 8-22 to the portfolio as with 40 bets a season, win, lose or draw, the
system isn’t going to do much damage in a season and based on results to date,
it should make a profit.
497 bets across 6 seasons with an ROI of 34.7% is about
as good as it gets but unfortunately, as a standalone system, it’s meaningless
now. I’m sure people reading this would be thinking that playing £500 a point
and making an ROI of 30% a season from staking £20k a season isn’t a bad idea
but the risk that comes with that is huge. You could stake £20k in different
ways across the season that reduces the risk and helps to ensure that if things
go badly, you don’t end up broke. Of course, if any systems can dodge variance,
this is probably it as it is so unique in the way it is built but I just have
to think sooner or later, a few bets will lose and that profit will be reduced
to zero over a season simply due to variance.
It’s impossible to analyse this system too much as 40
bets isn’t a near big enough sample to draw any conclusions from. The fact the
system has managed to have 13 winning months from 17 since it went live is
unbelievable given the small bet numbers each month but then again, it is so
good at picking out the best bets.
The Homes were unreal on this system this season. 13 winners from 17 bets and an ROI of 48.8%.
15 from 22 last season when it achieved an ROI of 28.2%.
Aways weren’t bad either with a 17% ROI this season but
down on the 25.6% ROI last season.
I think this system is another one of those that is
scarred from the bad performance and drawdown in the second half of the first
season.
I suggested a betting bank of 40pts based on the drawdown
of 16pts. The max drawdown is 17pts now. Based on the fact you only get 50 bets
a season now max, 40pts can’t be the right bank for a season.
The profit this season is 12.2pts which means a ROC of
30.5%. Very low again but can easily be
improved by playing higher stakes on Homes.
The highest drawdown for AH0.25 and AH0.5 is less than 5pts, so therefore,
if you want to reduce the betting bank and increase the ROC, this would allow
you to do this too.
Anyway, going forward then, 30pts bank, 50 bets and a
target ROI of 20%. Gives a target ROC of 33%.
Graeme says: 497 bets across 6 seasons with an ROI of 34.7% is about as good as it gets but unfortunately, as a standalone system, it’s meaningless now. I’m sure people reading this would be thinking that playing £500 a point and making an ROI of 30% a season from staking £20k a season isn’t a bad idea but the risk that comes with that is huge. You could stake £20k in different ways across the season that reduces the risk and helps to ensure that if things go badly, you don’t end up broke. Of course, if any systems can dodge variance, this is probably it as it is so unique in the way it is built but I just have to think sooner or later, a few bets will lose and that profit will be reduced to zero over a season simply due to variance.
ReplyDeleteReally good advice - if you are reading this and can grasp exactly what it means, then you have really cracked what it is to evaluate a betting system and how you should consider following it, not ROI alone but a number of other factors. If you don't get it, keep reading until you do!!
Excellent stuff Graeme.
Cheers for the comment mate.
ReplyDeleteI’ve tried my best to give a little future advice with every system I’ve reviewed but as you know yourself mate, we can all take these systems, play them our own way and at the end of the day, as long as we’re making profits, that’s all that matters.
I’m personally turning against the higher combined systems just a little (doing the reviews made me realise the fact I can achieve better ROC’s on some other systems) but deep down, I still trust the higher combined systems more than most of the other systems!
Plenty of food for thought for next season for me and all of us I suspect. Nice position to be in though. ;)
Graeme