Wednesday, 6 June 2012

Final review of last season....

This is the final review of the systems from last season.  It’s been a bit of a slog this Summer getting all these system reviews done but when I think there are going to be twice as many systems next season…, don’t think about it!

OK, this final review covers the performance of a portfolio of systems.  The Secret Betting Club proof the service based on the performance of the 6 combined systems (6-21 to 8-22).  I think it’s a fair indication of the service performance bearing in mind you can reduce the number of bets and achieve a higher ROI if you wish to do so. Likewise, you can play more systems and reduce the ROI if that’s your thing, so these 6 systems form a nice portfolio of systems to follow I think. 

You can download a spreadsheet again with the review of these 6 systems in total. Here's a link:

When the SBC first reviewed the service back during the 2010/11 season, they quickly pointed out that the combined systems were much better than the single systems and they suggested to their members that these were the systems to follow. A fair comment I think although the service has now been branded a high turnover service which is a little unfair as it’s probably the only service in the market where you can decide on the level of turnover you want!

I reckon about 25% of the service last season followed these 6 systems in a portfolio, so it’s only fair I review these systems as one portfolio and look at the performance last season, as well as give some thoughts about the expected future performance.

Systems 6-21 to 8-22

Let’s start at a high level and drill down.  A profit this season of 139pts from 968 bets. An ROI of 14.4%.  A highly acceptable performance I think over a very large sample of bets.

If we compare it to last season, it’s a little behind the performance then. Last season managed a profit of 166pts from 1,024 bets at an ROI of 16.3%. 

Overall, two seasons of live results, a profit of 305pts from 1,992 bets. An excellent performance I think and an ROI of 15.3% across nearly 2,000 bets is about as good as you can hope for from football betting.

I think the live profit graph is interesting. The first season was a story of two halves as it started amazingly well and then finished badly. Last season was much smoother after a poor start and although the P&L line was nowhere near as steep as in the first season, it didn’t suffer the same level of drawdowns we witnessed during the first season either.

It should be pointed out that the AH returns were nowhere near as good this season compared to last season.  You can see it for AH0 on the live graph where at the end of last season, both lines were at the same place but outright betting has pulled away again after this season.  What I would say though is the drawdowns for AH0 are nowhere near the drawdowns for outright betting, so you can probably play a much more aggressive betting bank which would improve your ROC greatly even though the ROI is much lower on AH0.

If you look at the graph of AH0.25 and AH0.5, it is a stunning P&L line. Maybe not as flashy in terms of ROI as other means of betting but would give you a much smoother P&L journey.

One aspect I’m really proud of for the 6 combined systems is the monthly P&L.  In 18 live months, the systems have produced profits in 15 months.  In 55 months of backtested and live results, there have only been 7 losing months!  Quite amazing really and the fact the live results have been very good on a monthly basis puts more weight on the backtested results too.

This won’t be surprising if you’ve read the previous system reviews but League One and League Two aways were the big issue on these systems this season.  A loss of 21.7pts in League One and a loss of 27pts in League Two this season. 

Amazingly, (don’t faint!), League Two lost 62pts the previous season on these systems.  If we go back another season, it’s a loss of 9pts in League Two.

A loss of 99pts on League Two Aways over the last 3 seasons. 

If using AH0.5 (Double Chance), then the loss becomes a profit of 32pts! Hence, a swing of 131pts from simply dutching the draw and the selection rather than backing the selection outright. 

Definitely something to consider going forward I think.  League Two needs to be looked at in further depth as we need to understand if it’s the case my ratings don’t work on these bets or is it a bit of variance (and very bad variance at that!).

The plus point this season was a profit of 61.4pts on Premiership Aways. An ROI of 113%.

Homes again did better than Aways. Last Season, Homes had an ROI of 21% and this season, it was 22.7%.  Aways had an ROI of 14.8% last season and 10.9% this season. 

Last Summer, I suggested a conservative betting of 215pts (as did the SBC) for this portfolio based on a drawdown of 88pts.  A profit of 139.3pts this season means a ROC of 64.8%.

Going forward, the SBC have reduced their suggested betting bank to 200pts which I agree with.  The max drawdown last season was less than 50pts.

I would hope an ROI of around 12% could be achieved going forward over 1,000 bets. Hence,  a target ROC of 60% next season. Seems about right.

If you are interested in increasing the ROC, covering the Aways with some sort of draw coverage would definitely allow you to reduce the betting bank and consider playing a higher stake on Homes relative to Aways.  Homes are much steadier in nature and could be played slightly more aggressively than Aways too.  

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