Thursday, 21 June 2012

Preview of System E2-E6

Only 3 more Euro system reviews to do after this one! Nothing unusual to point out here. Picked up all these observations from previous previews I think.

System E2-E6

I think this system doesn’t look as good as the last system and it’s backed up by the returns. System E1-E7 had an overall ROI of 35.6% whereas this system is only at 26.5%.  The bet number is very similar on both systems, so at first glance, you’d say that this doesn’t look as good a system as E1-E7.  I think it’s driven from the fact that E7 is a much better system than E2 (in a similar way system 22 is much better than system 7 in the UK systems).

The French league lets this system down with a lowly ROI of 13.2%.  The last two seasons have basically been break-even in France.  The other 3 leagues are all very decent every season though.

There are 44 winning months from 50, with an average month winning 12.1pts and a losing month losing 6.2pts.  There is a current winning streak of 16 months at the moment.

Aways for the last two seasons have been unreal with ROIs of 51.5% and 91.7%!  This is driven mainly by the Spanish and German leagues.

Aways in France have only created an ROI of 2.9% whereas AH0.5 has created a return of 29.7% which just shows how many of these games are draws! I expect the draw return in France is massive when the system picks out an Away bet.

The overall P&L graph looks very good with only one noticeable drawdown of any size. A quick look at the drawdown graph shows this is a drawdown of 24pts.

I think we’re looking at an average of 200 bets a season this system. The drawdown of 24pts looks a bit of a one-off and I’d think a bank of around 50pts is probably adequate and may be conservative even.

Using system 7-21 as an indicator, this system had a return for the two fully backtested seasons of 23.3%.  This became a return of 16.9% when live. I think we’re starting to see the power of the combined systems here and why these systems have been so successful. So, the UK system managed to achieve a return that is 72% of the backtested return.

The backtested return here on the Euro system is 22.1%.  Therefore, we’re looking at an ROI target of around 15.8% here!

I’ll reduce that to a return of 12.5% I think to give us a little leeway.

200 bets at 12.5% return gives a profit target of 25pts. At a bank of 50pts, this is a target ROC of 50%.  Seems like a nice target for the first season until we see how the system does live.

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