Friday, 22 June 2012

Preview of System E3-E7

Well, I’m glad that's done! I’m not sure how many words have appeared on this blog since the season ended but boy, have I been busy. I reckon it’s the 40th post since the season ended which was about 5 weeks ago!

This is the last preview of the Euro systems for next season. I’m quite pleased that I’ve managed to build the systems, pull the analysis document together, review the ratings and then review all systems individually within a 4-5 week spell.  Of course, that was after reviewing the UK systems after the season ended. A helluva lot of work in a short space of time but hopefully it will prove worth it next season for all of us following.

Right, here goes, the last system. Tried to keep it short and sweet!

System E3-E7

First thing to point out is the bet number. Similar to what I’ve said with the UK systems but a system with less than 100 bets a season can’t be trusted going forward in my opinion. I sort of let 7-22, 8-21 and 8-22 off the hook as they at least have shown they can produce a profit over a small bet number in a live environment but I have my reservations about this Euro system.  I’d love to be proved wrong and I’d love to see this system produce some sort of amazing return next season.  We’ll see what happens though.

The results by season are stunning and 36.9% overall is the highest of all the Euro systems. The three backtested seasons have an ROI of 32.8%. The best we’ve seen on any system too.

Although France is the worst league, it has actually been profitable for the last two seasons. It did have a losing season back in 2008/9 season though.

41 winning months from 50 which is better than I thought it would be I think. Many months have less than 10 bets and manage to scrape a profit, so a bit of luck involved I suspect!   The average winning month is only 8.1pts with a losing month costing 2.9pts on average.

Similar to system E2-E7, I take great comfort from the Home returns on this system. A return of 32.4% across Homes gives the system the steady returns I think as the strike rate is 55.1% for Homes, so they steady the ship at times when the Aways are winning or losing bigger amounts.

Last season showed a 29.2% return for Aways and 29.1% return for Homes.  I’ve noticed here that France has the worst performance for Homes and Aways. The more I see returns for the French league, the less I like the league. An overall return of 11.6% for AH0.5 bets in France shows where the issue lies in that league. Too many draws!

The German league had 5 bets last season for Aways and hit 5 losers. A poor season but it shows what can happen over a small sample of bets!

The P&L graph looks very good with not too many large drawdowns that I can see. This is reflected in the drawdown graph where the max drawdown is only 10pts. I would suggest a betting bank of 25pts would be adequate here.

So, we are expecting 90 bets next season. 

System 8-22 had a full ROI of 37.4% across four seasons and a measly 34.6% across the backtested seasons. When live, the system has achieved a return of 27.5%.  Basically, live results are 80% of the backtested results.

The backtested results on this Euro system are 32.8%.  Hence, we’re looking at a target ROI of 26%! Again, I think it’s mad to aiming for this sort of return as a target.  Let’s call it 20% (and even that’s a bit crazy IMO as a target!).

20% return across 90 bets gives a profit of 18pts.  A bank of 25pts would mean a ROC target of 72%.

OK, that’s me done.  The next post should be a copy of the performance table for all the systems and I’ll probably make it available to download so you can keep a copy and analyse it yourself!

Phew…. I can enjoy the weekend now.

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