Friday, 1 June 2012

System 8-21 Review

I think the theme from the last couple of reviews is the fact the ROC appears to be lower than you would expect given the performance of the system to date. However, in many cases, you either need to be playing higher stakes on Homes or using AH on Aways to get around this lower ROC issue. Of course, ROC isn't everything and if you play a few systems in total and leverage your bank a little, you can increase your ROC overall even though the systems may have lower ROC's independently.

System 8-21

Last Season

System 8 – 160 bets, 9.0% ROI
System 21 – 489 bets, 4.7% ROI
System 8-21 – 128 bets, 15.9% ROI

This Season

System 8 – 94 bets, 10.2% ROI
System 21 – 562 bets, 10.5% ROI
System 8-21 – 80 bets, 17.5% ROI

I like the look of the results above. In a way, system 8 is a great system already but cross referring it with system 21 turns it into something pretty special in my eyes. A 15.9% ROI last season and a 17.5% ROI this season.

In a way, this season’s performance is more impressive going by the fact the 14 bets that appeared on system 8 but didn’t appear on system 21 made a loss of 4.4pts.  May not seem like much but having the power to take a system like system 8 and improve it by applying a simple filter again is pretty impressive stuff I think.

Over 2 seasons, system 8-21 has an ROI 16.5%. Very impressive I think.

The Premiership bets were 6 from 6 on this system this season which is crazy. A profit of 11.3pts from these games.

Losses were achieved in League One, Two and the Championship but nothing major in any of them. Aways were to blame for all 3 losses. Looking back, League Two lost last season too. Fed up saying how bad League Two has been on these systems!

6 winning months from 9 this season and 13 from 18 winning months since the system went live.  

Aways struggled on this system this season. A profit of 1.4% and a loss on all types of AH betting. However, Homes had an ROI of 37.2% and thankfully, Homes had 45% of the bets this season, so Homes effectively saved this system this season.

Interestingly, the P&L graphs aren’t as impressive as some on this system.  The system did great for the first 60 bets, terrible for the next 60 bets, great for the next 60 bets and then no profit for the next 30 bets!

The same is true for the AH graphs although the drawdowns are small, so the bank needed would be low. Even so, it hasn’t produced great profits for AH betting and it was a losing season this season for all types of AH betting.

Seems like a fairly short review for this system but I feel like I don’t want to keep going over old ground and pointing out things that I’ve already pointed out on system 8 or 21.

Last Summer, I suggested a bank of 40pts which was based on a drawdown of 16pts. The max drawdown is now 18pts, so I’d say 40pts look OK and may be a little high given the lower number of bets this season.

A profit this season of 14pts gives a ROC of 35%. Again, fairly low ROC but it could be improved a little by playing higher stakes on Homes I think. The Homes on the high combined systems are so strong and it’s the Aways that bring the volatility to the systems.

Going forward then, I’d say a bank of 40pts is right. Maybe 100 bets a season (was lower this season) and a target ROI of 15%. A target ROC of 37.5%. Not as high as some but could be improved by playing slightly higher stakes on Homes. 

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