I think the one thing that strikes me working through this analysis was just the size of the returns. I try my best to not get suckered into thinking about the returns as they don’t mean anything until the system goes live as I keep on reiterating but jeez, if the system can achieve a fraction of these returns live, I’d be over the moon next season.
The thing that strikes me looking at the returns by season is the sheer size of the ROI’s. The 2010/11 season is quite laughable at an ROI of 57.4% but even one of the backtested seasons has an ROI of 39.9% in 2009/10!
The results by league brings this home again with the Italian league having an ROI of 48% overall. Even the lowly French league which is still holding up the rear has an ROI of 28.4%.
There are 44 winning months, 6 losing months. Average winning month is 15.2pts with the average losing month being a lowly 4pts. The system had been on a winning run of 25 months in a row before the losing month at the end of last season.
The overall returns for Aways on this system is 52.5% which is unbelievable. The Italian league has 66.8% return on Aways and Germany only has a return of 60.5%. France somehow has a return of 49.6% on Aways which is amazing given they lost last season.
The overall P&L graph has a strange shape to it with a great start and massive growth, a slowdown in growth, a spurt in growth and then a slight slowdown in growth. Importantly, it’s always going up in the main with very few drawdowns of any significance.
The drawdown graph backs this up with a max drawdown of only 19pts. I’d suggest 50pts as a bank should be OK on this system.
I’d think we’ll see around 225 bets next season.
The overall ROI of 35.6% drops to 28.6% for the backtested seasons.
If we look at system 6-22, this was a full ROI of 34.1%. It dropped to 21.3% for fully backtested results. Live, the system has produced 13.2%. Again, over 50% of the backtested results which is a good effort.
We should be looking at an ROI of around 14% on this system then next season with any luck!
Similar to what I did with the last system, I’ll bring that down a little as a target of 14% doesn’t leave much room for improvement!
I’ll say a target of 10% next season.
That’s a profit target of 22.5pts and an ROC target of 45%. Again, I’d hope there is more upside than downside here but with no live results, don’t want to be setting targets that can never be met!