Monday, 4 June 2012

Systems 21-31, 6-21-31 and 6-32 Reviews

Before looking at these systems in depth, I expected these reviews to conclude that these 3 systems aren’t worth following and that they have all been disappointing this season.

Looking at the ROC figures on the first two systems, I think it opens my eyes somewhat to what is possible here and maybe I’ve been a little bit guilty of concentrating too much on the 6 combined systems on the established systems.  It will be interesting in a few days as I’ll pull together a summary of all the system reviews and I’m sure there will be some very interesting results when you put the results side by side for each system.

Anyway, here’s the next 3 new systems from last season.


System 21-31

By far the most interesting aspect of this system was the sheer number of bets this season! Historically, the system had averaged less than 200 bets a season and yet, this season, the system had 406 bets! Of course, the reason for this is the fact I increased the number of bets on system 21 this season enormously and many of these ended up appearing on system 31 too.

The overall return for the season 9.2% ended doesn’t look bad at face value considering it’s over a large number of bets but the point of cross referring systems 21 and 31 was to hopefully improve the performance of each individual system. 

System 21 ended up with an ROI of 10.5% before any interference from system 31, so ultimately, by cross referring system 21 with 31, I’ve actually weakened system 21! It had the desired effect of improving the return on system 31 from a lowly ROI of 3.8%, so I guess it’s not all bad. The question for this system would be does it add anything to system 21? Based on the first season, the answer is probably know but I don’t want to draw too many conclusions from one season.

A large loss in League Two on this system but Homes were as bad as Aways in this league on this system.  The monthly results were decent for this system and 6 winning months from 9 is better than many systems.

I think the P&L graph is interesting in the sense the system took a long time to make any decent profits this season but it wasn’t doing much damage when things weren’t going its way. Aways made a 10% return and Homes made a 6.2% return.

Overall, I think this system suffers from the fact there are better systems and of course, one of the systems making up this system is a better system in its own right.  However, I wouldn’t knock a 9.2% ROI over a season and I think it was probably a tough season for this system. Would like to see it do better next season.

Last Summer, I suggested a bank of 65pts. A profit of 37.3pts means a ROC of 57%.  May not have been the best season for this particular system but a ROC of 57% during a below average season shows the potential this system has I think!

The max drawdown remains 25pts and therefore, I would think a 65pt bank is plenty. 21pts was the max drawdown last season.  I would expect 400 bets a season and a ROI of 6% seems like a realistic target.  That would give a target ROC of 37%. This is probably conservative based on the fact the ROI this season was over 9%.

System 6-21-31

Again, the big change here is the number of bets in the first live season. Historically, the system had averaged 155 bets but this season, it had 360 bets! Simply, some of the changes I applied to systems 6 and 21 before the start of this season ultimately meant I captured much more bets that appeared on system 31. Hence, the backtested results aren’t really an indication of the performance of this system going forward.

Anyway, an ROI of 9.1% on this system and very similar comments to system 21-31. Cross referring it with system 6 just reduced the number of bets and didn’t really add anything to the profitability at all.

League Two was dreadful again, the system had 6 winning months from 9 and Aways did better than Homes.

The P&L graph looks very much like system 21-31 but interestingly, the max drawdown is a little bit lower which means that cross referring systems 21-31 with system 6 did reduce the volatility a tiny bit. Should come through in the betting bank hopefully and ROC figures.

Last summer, I suggested a bank of 45pts.  The max drawdown then was 16pts. A profit this season of 32.6pts means a ROC of 72% was achieved this season.  I think this is one of the best ROCs this season!

The max drawdown is now 21pts, so I would suggest a betting bank of 55pts to be on the safe side given the higher number of bets now too.

An ROI target of 7% is achievable I hope (should be slightly better than 21-31) and therefore, across 350 bets, an achievable ROC of 45% should be the target for next season.

System 6-32

Historically, the average number of bets on this system was 197 per season and this season, there were 197 bets too. Unfortunately, that’s where the similarities ended with previous seasons!

Given system 6 had an OK season and given 32 had a good season, you would hope 6-32 would do Ok but unfortunately, it struggled if I’m honest. A return of 3% across 197 bets is poor and given the underlying performance of 6 and 32, you would have expected much better here.

4 winning months from 9, losses in half of the leagues, a lowly return from Homes and Aways and a rollercoaster of a P&L graph sum up this system this season.

The saving grace is probably the graph since the beginning of the backtested results and you can see periods of 300 bets with no profits being made, so to go 197 bets with only a small profit is no disaster. It just looks like a disaster when you compare it to my other systems!

It also suffered a nasty drawdown this season of 23pts which will impact on the future betting bank and ROC achievable, so this system may be limited going forward.

Last Summer, I suggested a bank of 45pts.  A profit of 6pts means a ROC of 13% was achieved. 

Going forward, I’d have to say a bank of 50pts may be best. A target ROI of 8% across 200 bets.  Would give a target ROC of 32%. 

I would suggest that this system isn’t one that is followed going forward by subscribers.  Quite simply, the 8% ROI target may be outside the reach of this system based on what we saw this season! We’ll see what happens though.

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