Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Systems TOX, STOY and STOZ Reviews

As you may have noticed when you downloaded the Excel sheet with all the analysis for each system, there are no backtested results for the final 3 systems I’m about to review.  I made a conscious decision to get rid of any backtested results for these systems as I changed the criteria midway through the season. I could have gone back through and calculated the backtested results based on the new criteria but the live results the systems had been achieving were nothing like the original backtested results on the original criteria. Therefore, I quickly figured that the backtesting of these systems was worthless.

Without a doubt, these 3 systems have been the most disappointing systems from last season. I didn’t hide the fact (I was actually quite bullish about it which is unlike me!) that these systems would produce a good return last season after I’d built the systems.  The backtesting I carried out on these systems led me to believe that they were very robust and would work very well in a live environment but for whatever reason, the systems didn’t do well last season at all.

Anyway, no point dwelling on one season and I still don’t think they produced anything like their best performance last season.  Definitely can’t follow these systems with confidence next season (I wouldn’t suggest anyone follow them at all as they carry some risk after this season!) but I’ll be very keen to see how they do next season. I’d be amazed if they don’t leave this season’s performance behind……

System TOX

A very poor 4.3% ROI across 279 bets this season.  Only 4 winning months from 9.

Without a doubt, the one shining light on the system this season was the Home bets and a pretty remarkable 30% ROI on Home bets this season. I’d picked up this trend very early on (thankfully for me as I was following these systems!) and therefore, overstaking the Homes helped to ensure I didn’t do much damage as these systems struggled to produce any profit all season.

Aways produced a loss over the season which is disappointing when you consider all the other systems this season. Covering the draw on the Aways would have turned this loss around.  League One and League Two aways counted for a 20pts loss which is a crazy figure really across a small sample of bets.

Last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 30pts and the max drawdown was 18pts this season.  Clearly, the betting bank I suggested last Summer wasn’t worth much as I changed the criteria half way through the season but even so, if anyone was following this system, the bank was never under too much pressure I hope.

A profit of 12pts on a bank of 30pts is a highly respectable ROC of 40%.

Of course, hindsight dictates the proper bank should have been around 45pts.  Even so, a 12pt profit on a bank of 45pts would have been a ROC of 27%. Given I think the system has been rubbish this season (and I honestly mean that), then a 27% ROC isn’t bad!

Going forward, it’s hard to be accurate here as we are basing it on one season.  I’d say 300 bets is the target number next season. I personally think an ROI of 8% should be achievable. That would give a pts profit of 24pts and a ROC of 53%. 

System STOY

An equally poor 3.8% ROI across 281 bets. 5 winning months from 9.

Similar comment to TOX in the sense the Aways were terrible and Homes were good.  Homes made an ROI of 23% on this system. 

Aways in League One and Two were even worse than on TOX! A loss of 28.8pts across 139 games.  It amazes me that the system managed to turn a profit in spite of this.  I can’t believe it can produce such a bad performance on Aways again!

Last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 25pts for this season.  The max drawdown was 19pts this season (gulp!).  That’s as close as I’ve ever come on any system to blowing a betting bank!

The new betting bank will be 50pts!  Anyway, with a profit of 10.7pts on a bank of 25pts, a highly competitive ROC was achieved this season of 43%. Just goes to show what can be achieved in a poor season when you overstake massively (or under capitalise your betting bank in other words!).

Going forward, I’d say 300 bets with a target ROI of 8%.  That’s a target ROC of 48% next season.

System STOZ

This was the best performer of the 3 systems with an ROI of 4.4% across 272 bets this season.  5 winning months from 9 this season.

Great performance by the Home bets again with an ROI of 21% and a small loss on Aways. 

An 18pt loss in League Two from 64 bets again which is as bad as it gets.  Losses were also achieved in the SPL and Championship too.

Last Summer, I suggested a betting bank of 45pts for this season. A profit of 12pts means a ROC of 27%.  Interestingly, the system has the best ROI this season but the worst ROC! 

The max drawdown this season was 17pts, so a betting bank of 45pts is about right I think. 

Going forward, I’d say 300 bets a season would be the target with an ROI of 8%.  That would give a target ROC of 53% which would be highly respectable.

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