Sunday, 24 June 2012

Updated Performance Summary

Here’s the updated summary performance for all systems after the Euro systems have been added in. You can also download the spreadsheet here:

I think before we start drawing any conclusions from the above table now that I’ve added the Euro systems, we need to keep the following things in mind:
  • Any system with no live results is unproven, regardless of how good the backfitting may have been and how good the backtesting has gone.  1 season of live results is worth 100 seasons backtested results. Remember this!
  • The number of bets for the Euro systems is based on backtested results. Again, the UK systems had a vastly different number of bets when they went live compared to what I saw during backtesting.
  • The average odds are from the backtested results for the Euro systems. As I’ve seen when the UK systems went live, the same type of bets thrown up live may have wildly different odds compared to the odds used at kick-off during backtesting. Please keep this in mind.
  • The setting of betting banks has been done using historical drawdowns. For the Euro systems, this is based on backtested results. Hence, I wouldn’t trust these drawdowns at all.  With no live results, it gives us something to go on which is better than nothing but only just better!
  • The target ROI and ROC for the Euro systems is based on the relationship between backtested results and live results I’ve seen on the equivalent UK systems.  Whether or not this is valid, I’ve absolutely no idea! Hence, I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on target ROI and ROC on the Euro systems.
  • If given a choice to follow a system with live bets and a system with no bets, always choose the system with live bets as you can have no regrets if the system performs poorly. If you follow a new system and it loses whilst a proven system makes a profit, you are in danger of looking like a fool!
OK, that’s enough caveats. I just feel like I need to keep stating these sorts of things to keep people’s minds focussed on what it is we are doing here. I don’t want people dumping the Uk systems since the Euro systems look better on paper.  Lots of things look great on paper in life but never look too good in real life!

I think some of the key points that come out from this are ultimately why I hope the Euro systems end up being better than the UK systems! 

For a start, the Euro systems have more bets that appear on the higher combined systems and therefore, whereas the UK systems struggled with ROC for systems 6-22+, the Euro systems have no such problems.  Hence, the Euro systems may give us an opportunity to achieve a high ROI whilst at the time achieving a high ROC. In my humble opinion, this is the Holy Grail.

As well as the higher bet number, the drawdowns are also lower on the Euro systems. Of course, this is because they have no live results, so I very much doubt we’ve seen the worst of these systems (99.9% sure we haven’t) but at least there is the potential for these systems to never have the sort of losing run the UK systems have witnessed when they went live.  

As time goes on, the likelihood of the Euro systems having a nightmare drawdown increases and which is why setting betting banks based on drawdowns isn’t ideal but at the moment, the UK systems are scarred from what happened in the second half of their first season. There are no scars on the Euro systems yet!

In a similar vein, we have probably already realised the potential of the UK systems. At the moment, the Euro systems potential is still untapped and that makes them more exciting than the UK systems in my eyes.  That can all change quite quickly I suspect if they start next season badly.

The one big question that hangs over the Euro systems is how will they perform in a live environment? At the moment, your guess is as good as mines and although I have a track record of building profitable football systems, we’re into a different set of leagues now, more liquid markets and how things go is anyone’s guess. 

Anyway, that’s me done with the Euro systems. I’ve not really looked at the systems myself if I’m honest about what systems I’ll follow and what stakes I’ll play. The reason for this is that in a few weeks when I come to discussing what systems people want to follow next season and helping them make decisions, I don’t want my own thinking to influence the decisions that others make. Once everyone is set up with their own portfolio next season, I’ll give mines some thought and decide what I’m doing.  Hence, my mind will be totally clear as I start discussing potential portfolios for others next season. 

OK, I think that’s the next chapter closed on the blog.  Two big pieces of work left this Summer and then I can start thinking about next season.

I need to build the 4th UK algorithm (not even started it yet) and I want to look at the Under/Over 2.5 goal systems I proofed last season in the SBC forum and see what I can do with them.  I’ll probably look at the Under/Over systems first as it’s an easier job and it’s maybe a week’s work at max. It will take 1-2 weeks to do the 4th algorithm I think.

Be back in a few days hopefully with an update on the Over/Under systems.

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