Monday, 18 June 2012

Preview of System E2

Remember, these system previews need to be read in conjunction with the spreadsheet available to download on this post:

System E2

I think you can see the benefit of moving from system E1 to E2 in terms of returns.  The last two backtested seasons have returns of 13.4% and 14.5%, sandwiched in between is the ‘funny’ 2010/11 season with a return of 29.7%. It’s a definite step up from the returns we witnessed on system E1.

A similar trend in terms of performance by league as system E1 with France being the worst league and Germany being the best league.  A loss in France last year being the second season where a loss has been made in a league. There was also a loss in 2008/9 in Spain over a season.

There have been 42 winning months with 8 losing months, an average winning month returning 13.3pts profit and an average losing month costing 7.1pts. Two losing months last season with six winning months.

Aways struggled last season on this system which is in line with system E1. Homes did very well and their best season since 2007/8.  The same trend as on system E1 where covering the draw fully in France on away bets will actually increase your profits.  Quite a stunning statistic that there were only 6 away winners from 35 bets in France last season!   Italy didn’t do much better with only 6 winners from 29 away bets last season.  Definitely seems to be the case that Aways struggled last season.

I think if you look at the overall P&L graph, it looks a fair bit better than system E1 as there isn’t the same period of stagnation that we saw on system E1 at one point. The P&L line is about as close to a 45 degree line as you can get.

The drawdown graph looks a fair bit different from system E1 though. There are two pretty significant drawdowns and many smaller drawdowns. The max drawdown has been 27pts to date  although the next biggest is 21pts.

Difficult to spot anything out of the ordinary on this system if I’m honest. Many of the same observations I made on system E1 have been made here. Don’t want to spend time going over the same points really.

Going forward, I’d say 300 bets (may be too high based on the trend?).  The underlying ROI is 16% (as against the overall ROI of 20.4%).  If I look at system 7, the overall ROI was 19.8% and the fully backtested ROI was 16.3%.  Very similar results really.

The live ROI on system 7 is 7.5%.  Hence, the ROI has dropped by around 55%.  Hence, if we assume the target ROI on E2 should be 45% of 16%, then we’re looking at an ROI of 7.2% as a target.

With a max drawdown of 27pts, I’d say a bank of 65pts would be conservative.

So, 7.2% ROI over 300 bets gives a pts profit target of 21.6pts.  Against a bank of 65pts, that would give a target ROC of 33%.

Similar to E1, I would hope that we may see a slightly better ROI which may boost the ROC a little but even so, a 33% increase on your bank over the season wouldn’t be a disaster.

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