Tuesday, 19 June 2012

System E7 Preview

I’m conscious that some blog readers and probably some current subscribers for next season are struggling to keep up with the blog posts at the moment. I don’t want anyone to stress about it though but people need to realise that this is effectively the time when I need to do all this as once the season starts, the chances of me doing analysis like this on the systems is limited. Hence, I need to take the time available this Summer to do this, even though it means very few are able to keep up.

The great thing about a blog is that the information will always be here and can be referred to at any point, so there is no need to try to read all the posts and take it all in at the moment. In addition, I suspect once I populate the systems performance table for all systems, it will help people look at the overall performance of systems and it won’t involve reading lots of blog posts! Once people like the look of a system in that table, they can then read the review or preview of that system. 

The other reason for trying to get all these blog posts written is so that I have more time to look at how we should play next season.  That’s the important bit for us although to do that job properly, I need to do these reviews and previews as it's the groundwork for making good decisions for next season.

Anyway, without further ado, here’s the review of E7.

System E7

This is the single system that excites me the most.  It’s funny as I was always attracted to system 8 more than system 22 for the UK systems but for these Euro systems, system E7 looks a much more solid system to me than system E3.

The results by season look very good, with an overall ROI of 26.8% across the 6 seasons but the 3 backtested seasons giving an ROI of 23.9%. This is very decent in my eyes.

I can’t quite put my finger on why but I’m attracted to the fact that the Italian league is the best league here.  I think part of me worries a little about the German league being best on all the other systems to date as it seems to be driven by a crazy ROI on the away bets in Germany.  A quick look here and I can see the Italian Home bets have an ROI of 32.6% historically. This appeals to me much more as the average odds will be much lower and to achieve an ROI of 32.6% on Homes is unreal. 

The other attraction with this system is the French Aways look OK.  They look rubbish on every other system, so this system is doing something with the bets that the other systems can’t and this alone appeals to me I think.

There has been 44 winning months with only 6 losing months on this system. Again, this is better than all the other systems I’ve reviewed so far. The system is on a winning run of 22 months which is unbelievable really.  The average winning month is 16.3pts and the average losing month is only 4.9pts.

The other thing I like here is the fact the Homes and Aways both had good seasons last season. I saw on other systems Aways struggled last season but not on this system.

Again, the results by league are all very encouraging with profits split between Homes and Aways.

The P&L graph looks very steady, with no great drawdowns but plenty of little quiet spells where not much profit or loss was made. The drawdown graph also looks decent with a max drawdown of 25pts.  I’d suggest a bank of 60pts is probably about right for this system.

So, I would expect 300 bets a season going forward. 

System 22 had a full ROI of 31% but this dropped a fair bit for the two fully backtested seasons. It was only 18%.  When the system has went live, it has created a very impressive return of 10.8%.

Hence, it achieved over 50% of the backtested results. The best by any single system.

Well, without putting my neck on the line too much, I’d say that system E7 looks the best single system for the Euro leagues. Hard to put my finger on it but just looking at the P&L graphs, the drawdown graph and all the P&L tables, I get more confidence than I’ve had from the other Euro systems thus far.

So, the full ROI for this system over the 6 seasons is 26.8%. However, the backtested results for the 3 seasons is 23.9%.  If I assume this system can achieve a 50% of this, the we’re looking at a target ROI of 12% for next season.  I feel a bit bad as I’d definitely take 10% as a minimum on any system, so I’ll stick with a 10% return as a target, knowing it could better this.

300 bets would give a 30pts profit target. A 60pt bank gives a ROC target of 50% for this system.

I think it’s great that the ROC target and ROI targets look best on this system so far. As I say, it’s hard to exactly pinpoint why but I’d be disappointed if this system isn’t the best single system from the 5 Euro systems next season.

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