Well, before looking at these results and writing this post, I’ve had a quick look back at systems 6 and 7 and the backtested results for these systems. A virtual friend commented to me in an email after my last post that maybe I’m losing my perspective a little with some of the European system results. I wanted to check if he was right. :)
I joked myself in the last post that maybe I was expecting too much with system E2 but maybe I have lost perspective a little with these systems. I’ve said it on the blog and I’ve said it in the SBC forum but if I can get these Euro systems to be half as good as the UK systems in a live environment, then I’d be more than happy. Therefore, why does it read like I’m disappointed with system E2 ‘only’ achieving a 20% return during backtesting?
Well, I’ve looked back at systems 6 and 7 and the first ever results I had on these systems. I’m not sure if it is the fact that time has erased my memory or I’ve got too caught up with the combined system returns but here’s the results from systems 6&7 for the period 2006/07 to 2009/10.
System 6 – 17.5% ROI
System 7 – 19.8% ROI
Obviously, I can compare that with the results from E1 and E2 which I have already looked at:
System E1 – 17.0% ROI
System E2 – 20.4% ROI
It’s funny, doing this has made me realise something, I am a twat at times! I feel slightly embarrassed now that I was knocking the returns on system E1 and E2 when they are nearly identical to systems 6 and 7! (If I could do smiley embarrassed faces on the blog, it would definitely be time to insert one here!)
As the email suggested to me, I’ve got a bit lost with thinking about the UK combined system returns of 20%+ and yet, I’m comparing these returns with the single systems on the Euro systems. He’s spot on. I’m a little surprised the returns on 6 and 7 are so close to the returns on E1 and E2 now I see them. Or am I?
Well, I guess not. The whole point of the European systems is to create the same sort of returns as the UK systems and the systems are built in an identical manner, so why would I expect the results to be much different? Of course, the Euro systems have swapped less Away bets for more Home bets and I guess it’s pleasing then that the returns are similar on both systems. I would hopefully expect the Euro systems to give a smoother journey than the UK systems since the average odds will be lower than on the UK systems. (One thing I'm interested in seeing when we get to that stage!)
Anyway, a massive thanks to my virtual friend for keeping me on track and not wallowing in self pity that my Euro systems are doing rubbish compared to the UK systems! They aren’t.
Right, onto system E3.
As I said on the last post, when I first looked at system 8, this is when I first thought I had cracked this game (hindsight proved I was nowhere near cracking the game with system 8!). The ROI on system 8 was 26.7% during backtesting. Let’s see how system E3 compares.
Well, the 20.4% return on system E2 has become a 27.5% return on system E3. Much more like it in my opinion! Amazingly, very close to system 8 as well. Quite spooky how close these returns are to the UK systems!
Looking at the season breakdown, slightly disappointing looking at the results last season with an ROI of 10.8% but then again, if that’s the worst season I’ve got to worry about, maybe following the system live next season isn’t bad timing!
Here’s the results if I strip out the seasons affected by backfitting.
Again, really pleased with this and a 20% ROI overall. Interesting that there is a bumper season in there for 2009/10 which is not really something I’ve noticed on the earlier systems, so it shows what is possible in a good season I hope.
Right, here’s the split by Home and Away bets on this system.
Similar to the last system, 64% of the bets are Home bets. The returns are again amazing for Away bets with an ROI of 36.2%. The more I see these Away results on the Euro systems, the more I scratch my head. It will be very interesting when we get to system E6 and E7 as on the UK systems, Systems 21 and 22 are much better at Home bets than Away bets traditionally, so I would hope the same thing is repeated with the second algorithm on the Euro leagues. I'm slightly worried that the Home bets on the first algorithm aren't going to be as good as the Away bets!
Lastly, here’s the split by League:
Again, the German league has the best returns, followed by Italy. I’m curious to see how the Home/Away split is impact by League and I’d love to know where these big Away returns are being generated!
I feel like a massive tease here but that will do for system E3. I see these blog posts at the moment as little introductions to the systems and the more in depth reviews will follow once I’ve completed the introductions.
Next post should be system E6 which is the first system on the second European algorithm. A new algorithm will mean a totally different set of results we’re analysing now, so it will be interesting to see how the results look.
OK, I'm going to be getting a little ahead of myself and yourself here, but there has been a recurring theme throughout these posts on the Euro systems. I've a feeling you may well be intending to address this point a little further down the line. If so, tell me to pipe down and be patient. :)
ReplyDeleteBeing straight with you, my intention has always been to follow the Euro systems next season, but not with hard cash. As you say yourself, next season is to be judged on the performance of the UK systems and that's good enough for me.
But, the recurring theme that you keep touching on are the similarities to the results that you experienced when you were developing the UK systems. I see there are differences between weightings of home bets vs away bets, but in terms of the results..."Quite spooky how close these returns are to the UK systems!"
Should these similarites not give us a lot more confidence in backing these systems? Am I being a little too cautious in thinking I should just watch these systems perform over 2012/13 to see how it goes? I'm not suggesting we wade right in (you know me! :) ) but at the same time...
Right, tell me to bugger off if you like, and to stop trying to rush things.
Rowan
Welcome back from your break mate. Typical that you come back and pose a question like this isn’t it? ;)
ReplyDeleteAs you have picked up yourself mate, I’ve already said I want next season to be judged on the UK systems on the blog and I said the same in an SBC forum post. However, as you are aware, I’m not spending my time this Summer doing all this for a bit of fun next season. No, let’s be clear, if these Euro systems don’t do well next season, I’ll be VERY annoyed, regardless of what happens with the UK systems.
In a way, I was annoyed with the new systems in the UK this season and I only really changed my opinion a little when I did the system reviews. I actually think the new UK systems had an average season last season now even though I was annoyed at hem all season!
Anyway, what I’m getting at is that for me personally, these Euro systems are very important next season.
Long-term, I suspect that it may even be better for me personally, both from a punting perspective and a tipping perspective if I can get the Euro systems to produce the goods. I touched on it on a recent post but the advantage that the additional liquidity brings shouldn’t be underestimated. As well as making it easier for me to get my bets on, increase stakes long-term and make this a sustainable edge that can be exploited for myself in a big way, it also opens up the doors for many others to follow and of course, they’d have the same advantages that I’m looking to gain from these European Leagues. Hence, it shouldn’t be underestimated how important these new Euro systems may prove to be.
I’ve written 298 words mate and not even got close to answering your question Rowan.
Would it be right or wrong to follow these systems next season?
As you suggested in your question, it’s probably something that needs a good bit of thought and I really need to spell out the Pros and Cons involved with this idea. I think the place where this should be done is on the blog after I finish the introductions to the systems. So, I’m maybe 2-3 posts away from this stage I think.
I feel like once I’ve showed all the results by system at a high level, I’ll be in a better place to answer your question.
I’ve already decided myself (easy decision really for me!) that I’ll be following the Euro as part of my portfolio next season. I followed some of the new UK systems last season and although I was annoyed with the results most of the season and felt I was wasting my time, I will NEVER understand what it is like to follow a system unless I actually do it. I’ve also got the added issue of having to do all the work, so it’s hard to keep motivated to do this unless I’m following the bets myself!
I think the answer to your question depends on the pros and cons but as I hint at above, if people are thinking of following the Euro systems seriously in future, then following them next season maybe isn’t a bad idea, assuming they are staked properly. Of course, the time spent following these new systems to trial stakes may be better spent following another system from the UK systems though, so it’s not quite as easy to answer this as one would think.
Anyway, I’ll give it some thought whilst I’m writing the next couple of posts and hopefully I’ll have the answer in my head by the time it comes to replying to your question. :)
Cheers for the comment mate. Just noticed tonight that the French league kicks off in August this season! The season doesn’t feel so long away now that I’ve noticed that……
Graeme