Well, before looking at these results and writing this post, I’ve had a quick look back at systems 6 and 7 and the backtested results for these systems. A virtual friend commented to me in an email after my last post that maybe I’m losing my perspective a little with some of the European system results. I wanted to check if he was right. :)
I joked myself in the last post that maybe I was expecting too much with system E2 but maybe I have lost perspective a little with these systems. I’ve said it on the blog and I’ve said it in the SBC forum but if I can get these Euro systems to be half as good as the UK systems in a live environment, then I’d be more than happy. Therefore, why does it read like I’m disappointed with system E2 ‘only’ achieving a 20% return during backtesting?
Well, I’ve looked back at systems 6 and 7 and the first ever results I had on these systems. I’m not sure if it is the fact that time has erased my memory or I’ve got too caught up with the combined system returns but here’s the results from systems 6&7 for the period 2006/07 to 2009/10.
System 6 – 17.5% ROI
System 7 – 19.8% ROI
Obviously, I can compare that with the results from E1 and E2 which I have already looked at:
System E1 – 17.0% ROI
System E2 – 20.4% ROI
It’s funny, doing this has made me realise something, I am a twat at times! I feel slightly embarrassed now that I was knocking the returns on system E1 and E2 when they are nearly identical to systems 6 and 7! (If I could do smiley embarrassed faces on the blog, it would definitely be time to insert one here!)
As the email suggested to me, I’ve got a bit lost with thinking about the UK combined system returns of 20%+ and yet, I’m comparing these returns with the single systems on the Euro systems. He’s spot on. I’m a little surprised the returns on 6 and 7 are so close to the returns on E1 and E2 now I see them. Or am I?
Well, I guess not. The whole point of the European systems is to create the same sort of returns as the UK systems and the systems are built in an identical manner, so why would I expect the results to be much different? Of course, the Euro systems have swapped less Away bets for more Home bets and I guess it’s pleasing then that the returns are similar on both systems. I would hopefully expect the Euro systems to give a smoother journey than the UK systems since the average odds will be lower than on the UK systems. (One thing I'm interested in seeing when we get to that stage!)
Anyway, a massive thanks to my virtual friend for keeping me on track and not wallowing in self pity that my Euro systems are doing rubbish compared to the UK systems! They aren’t.
Right, onto system E3.
As I said on the last post, when I first looked at system 8, this is when I first thought I had cracked this game (hindsight proved I was nowhere near cracking the game with system 8!). The ROI on system 8 was 26.7% during backtesting. Let’s see how system E3 compares.
Again, really pleased with this and a 20% ROI overall. Interesting that there is a bumper season in there for 2009/10 which is not really something I’ve noticed on the earlier systems, so it shows what is possible in a good season I hope.
Right, here’s the split by Home and Away bets on this system.
Lastly, here’s the split by League:
I feel like a massive tease here but that will do for system E3. I see these blog posts at the moment as little introductions to the systems and the more in depth reviews will follow once I’ve completed the introductions.
Next post should be system E6 which is the first system on the second European algorithm. A new algorithm will mean a totally different set of results we’re analysing now, so it will be interesting to see how the results look.