Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Preview of System E1-E6

This is the first preview of a Euro combined system. Similar to the UK systems, I would expect anyone playing these new systems next season to be playing the combined systems rather than the single systems, so these previews now take a step up in terms of importance. However, given I’ve already touched on every single system, they’ll probably take a step down in terms of finding anything new to point out, so I’ll try my best to keep these previews for the combined systems as short as I can!

System E1-E6

The first thing that stands out to me here is the improvement in system E1 and E6.  Similar to the UK systems, it’s clear that cross referring algorithms is likely to be the way to improve the profitability of these systems.  Not too surprising really considering everything I do with system building is built on this premise but it’s definitely a way to improve profits.

The season by season returns look very good, the P&L graph looks good and the drawdowns graph looks decent. Don’t want to jump to conclusions but I’d be disappointed if this system doesn’t end up with a very good target ROC. System 6-21 is the best UK system in terms of ROC, so I would expect a decent ROC to be achieved on this system.

A clear order for the performance by leagues, with Germany being the best, followed by Italy, Spain and then France. Nothing too surprising there really.

One thing that I should point out is that France is profitable last season and interestingly, no league has ever lost over the course of a season. This is definitely something that we didn’t see on the single systems.

44 winning months from 50 so far, average winning month of 17.9pts with a losing month costing 4.9pts on average.

The ROI on the Aways on this system is an incredible 39.5% with only a 27.4% strike rate, so the average odds must be pretty high!

The German Aways return is embarrassingly high with a return of 80.5% and it must be skewed by some big priced Away winners I think. One thing that strikes me with the Away strike rates on this system is how low they are, so the average odds must be 4/1+.  Doesn’t come through in the drawdowns graph though, so I guess that’s why the ROI is so high!

France and Italian Aways were both loss making last season but nothing like the losses we’ve seen on some of the single systems.

Going forward then, I’d expect around 350 bets next season.

The full ROI is 25.4% with the backtested ROI being 21.7%.  If I look at system 6-21, the full ROI was 27.1% with the backtested ROI being 24.2%.  Since going live, the system has achieved an ROI of 10.3%.  Hence, an ROI of around 40% of the backtested results.

Assuming the same here then, we should be looking at an ROI target of around 8%. 

350 bets with an ROI of 8%.  Gives a pts profit target of 28pts. 

The max drawdown is 23pts, so we’d be looking at a bank of around 55pts I think.

Hence, a ROC target of around 50%. I thought this might have been a little better but then again, I think it shows how good a system E7 is that it has a similar target ROC as this combined system!

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